Tropical System Heads West Toward FL, Gulf; Flooding Risk Grows

FLORIDA — The track of a tropical wave that could develop into a tropical depression or storm over the next few days has swung west, and could enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico, forecasters said.

Forecasters originally thought the storm system was likely to move up the east coast of Florida, possibly toward the Carolinas.

“The European model shifted over 300 miles west compared to 24 hours ago, joining the American Model,” Matt Devitt, WINK meteorologist, wrote in a Facebook post. “Current intensities in the Gulf range from weak low (Canadian model) to Category 1 Hurricane (American model), but note that they can struggle with both track and intensity for systems that haven't formed yet.”

FOX Weather experts warned the storm could develop quickly and close to Florida, giving residents little time to react to flooding, so the time to prepare is now.

"Your prep time is going to be about 24 hours, if that," said FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin if the storm does develop near Florida. "We could see this pull together when we already have rain moving on land. If this does develop, everything's going to happen very quickly. So you need to make sure that you're thinking about that and preparing you and your family for that potential."

The “well-defined” wave is bringing disorganized showers and thunderstorms to Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and parts of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean and northeastern Caribbean Sea Thursday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.

It has a 20 percent chance of strengthening over the next two days and a 60 percent chance over the next seven days, the agency said.

If it does develop into a tropical storm, it would be Debby, the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Related: Historic Number Of Hurricanes Predicted In 2024: NOAA

“Development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles,” NHC forecasters said. “However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles.”

A tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or near the Florida peninsula.

“Computer models suggest wind shear may be relatively light, and there's plenty of warm ocean water ahead of this system to fuel its development near the Bahamas or the Gulf of Mexico. These are both ingredients favorable for development,” according to the Weather Channel.

Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, expects a weak system in the Eastern Gulf to bring “a lot of rain to Florida early next week.”

He wrote in a Facebook post, “Timeframe on whatever happens is Sunday-Tuesday. No impacts before then.”

There is a significant chance the storm system may drench the Southeast states next week, AccuWeather.com said. A potential stall of the system's movement could bring days of downpours to parts of the Southeast, especially in coastal areas.

Should steering breezes remain steady, the system would tend to hook back out into the Atlantic and move along or offshore of the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts next week, AccuWeather said.

If the tropical disturbance does strengthen, “the northern Gulf coast would be the area of concern,” Phillips wrote. “Lots of warm water and more time to tap the energy.”

Devitt agrees, writing, “Can't rule out the system slowing down or even stalling while possibly in Central or Northern Florida next week. Flooding would be an issue for a portion of the state depending on track.”

Related:

• 'Extremely Active' 2024 Hurricane Season Predicted: What To Know In FL
• ‘Explosive’ 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted: Forecasters

As forecasters eye the system’s track and intensity, daily rainstorms are expected in much of Florida over the next few days, including in the Tampa Bay area, according to the latest National Weather Service forecast:

• Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4 p.m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 106. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
• Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 11 p.m. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 78. Light north northeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 107. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95. Calm wind becoming east southeast 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Saturday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. East southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. East southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.
• Sunday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 8 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. South southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.