Tropical Wave Approaching U.S.: What Can FL Expect?

FLORIDA — Floridians continue to eye a tropical wave moving across the Atlantic Ocean towards the United States.

The system’s odds of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm by the weekend remain the same Wednesday morning at 60 percent, according to the National Hurricane Center.

If it does develop into a tropical storm, it would be Debby, the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

The tropical disturbance, currently near the Lesser Antilles just north of the Caribbean Sea, is producing “a broad area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity,” the agency said.

While its development is currently slowed as it moves through dry air caused by the Saharan dust, “environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development while the system moves generally west-northwestward over the Greater Antilles and towards the
Bahamas,” according to NHC.

A tropical depression could form by the weekend while the system is near the Greater Antilles, Bahamas or Florida, forecasters added.

There are still a number of questions about the storm system’s track and intensity if it develops.

“At this time, there remains a great deal of uncertainty in terms of placement, track and eventual strength,” Tim Sedlock, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne, told the Orlando Sentinel. “Models will continue to have a problem with this feature until a low actually develops.”

“Should the storm track north of the big islands in the northern Caribbean later this week, it would more likely be a concern for the East Coast of the U.S. later on,” AccuWeather forecasters said. “On the other hand, should the storm track just south of the big islands, it may be more concerning for the U.S Gulf Coast later on.”

“(The) highest *current* probability is for the potential center to be near or just east of Florida,” Matt Devitt, WINK meteorologist, wrote in a Tuesday evening Facebook post. “(The) American model has been the outlier. If anything, I've seen most models shift a little east, closer to the European Model, which is not perfect, but statistically the most accurate.”

If the system does track east, Florida’s west and Gulf coast won’t see more than “our typical summer scattered storms,” Devitt wrote. “If models shift west, our rain chances would increase with more (minimal) impacts felt.”

It will likely get stronger and better organized as it moves away from Florida Sunday into Monday as it moves over warm water with lower shear and better moisture levels, he added.

“I would not cancel any plans for the weekend. I wouldn’t, especially not on the west coast,” Denis Phillips, ABC Action News meteorologist, said in a video shared to Facebook Tuesday evening.

He added, “The east side, there might be some rain, maybe a little bit of gusty winds at times. The only areas that I'm a little more concerned about could be the Bahamas … I’m not going to say it’s going to be terrible; I don't think it will be, but they could have at least some gusty winds and maybe even a tropical storm at that point, but for the state of Florida, the impacts should be pretty minimal.”

He said the system will likely be a tropical storm as it pulls up off the east coast of Florida and towards the Carolinas.

Still, “we’re not going to write it off,” as the GFS model “is still bringing it to the west side of the state,” Phillips said.

Either way, it’s “absolutely nothing to freak out about. It’s just going to be some rain across part of the state,” he added.

• Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11 a.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 105. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Wednesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 11 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 106. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Thursday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.
• Friday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.
• Saturday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. East wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.
• Sunday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 8 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.