Tropical Depression Could Form By Week's End: See Latest FL Forecast

FLORIDA — The odds have increased for a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic to possibly develop into a tropical depression later this week near the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas.

A tropical wave several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Tuesday morning has a 60 percent chance of strengthening within the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

“Conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean,” NHC forecasters said.

If it does develop into a tropical storm, it would be Debby, the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

• Also Read: Tropical Storm Could Form In Atlantic, Move Toward FL: Forecasters

The tropical disturbance is currently producing limited showers because of the dry air caused by the Saharan dust that it’s passing through.

“That dry air will keep a temporary lid on development. However, this system may have just enough moisture to insulate itself once it tracks farther west,” according to Weather Channel meteorologists. “Computer models suggest wind shear may be relatively light, so that may also favor later development. There's also plenty of warm ocean water ahead of this system to fuel its development near the Bahamas.”

There’s still uncertainty about where the storm goes after the Bahamas and whether it will head towards Florida.

“Should the storm track north of the big islands in the northern Caribbean later this week, it would more likely be a concern for the East Coast of the U.S. later on,” AccuWeather forecasters said. “On the other hand, should the storm track just south of the big islands, it may be more concerning for the U.S Gulf Coast later on.”

In the meantime, much of Florida will continue to see daily summertime storms, including the Tampa Bay area., according to the latest forecast from the National Weather Service:

• Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 105. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Tuesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 11 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 104. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Wednesday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 77. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.
• Thursday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m, then isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m.. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming north northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.
• Friday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Light east southeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.