TS Francine To Upgrade To Hurricane Along Gulf; 2 Systems In Atlantic

FLORIDA — The Gulf Coast's Tropical Storm Francine is expected to become a hurricane in coming days, possibly bringing "life-threatening storm surge" to parts of Texas and Louisiana, according to weather experts.

While Francine is not forecast to directly affect Florida, two disturbances far off in the Atlantic Ocean are on the radar of weather experts.

Tropical Storm Francine

An AccuWeather forecast puts Francine at a possible Category 1 hurricane Wednesday, with the chance the storm strengthens to a Category 2 before landfall.

A hurricane warning was issued Tuesday along the Louisiana coast, where a storm surge warning was also initiated, the National Hurricane Center at its 10 a.m. Tuesday update. The storm surge warning was also issued for upper Texas and Mississippi.

Francine's trajectory puts the storm north-northwestward across the western Gulf, the hurricane center said in its update.

Storm surge in coastal Louisiana could rise to 6-10 feet, AccuWeather forecasted.

South Louisiana could be hit by "damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds" as soon as Wednesday, the hurricane center said.

"Preparations to protect life and property should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday," the hurricane center said.

Francine could cause flash flooding along the South into Mississippi through Thursday, with flooding also possible for far southern Texas Tuesday and into Mississippi through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding could affect the mid-South into Friday morning, the hurricane center said.

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center on Tuesday released a similar forecast. Francine could make landfall in southern Louisiana, the NWS said.

"As the system approaches the central Gulf Coast and eventually pushes inland across Louisiana, an increased threat of life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-fore winds and considerable flash flooding is anticipated. Rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches, with local amounts up to 12 inches are forecast across much of central/eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday night. Francine is then forecast to continue its trek northward into the mid-South on Thursday, while quickly weakening. However, additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns are possible into western Tennessee neighboring regions," the NWS predicted.

"A stationary front extending eastward from the center of the storm over the next few days will also focus areas of numerous, slow-moving thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall rates between the Florida Peninsula and central Gulf Coast. Residents are reminded to remain weather-ready and never drive across flooded roadways."

AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said Francine's winds may reach a maximum sustained winds of 74-95 mph on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale before landfall Wednesday.

“The extremely warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico act like rocket fuel for a developing storm," Porter said. "We’re concerned Francine will continue to intensify as it tracks north. This storm is going to encounter disruptive wind shear, but it will also move through an area with very warm water and a lot of lifting in the atmosphere, which can help it intensify.”

Offshore gas and oil production and port logistics could be impacted by Francine, AccuWeather said.

Shell, Exxon and Chevron were all evacuating staff members in affected areas, with Shell pausing drilling activities, Reuters reported Tuesday.

Atlantic Disturbances

AccuWeather forecasters say two disturbances in the Atlantic could develop later in the week.

“It has been an unprecedented quiet stretch in the tropics without a named storm since mid-August," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said in a news release. "That streak is now over."

The first primary disturbance sat west of Cape Verde in West Africa as of Monday afternoon and is expected to creep westward in the upcoming days, AccuWeather said.

Its counterpart may surface off African in coming days and could move forward westward, AccuWeather said.

Little is known about these systems, and their potential impact to Florida is unknown.

As of around 12:45 p.m. Tuesday, the National Weather Service predicted the following detailed forecast for Tampa:

This Afternoon: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 100. East northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 9 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. East northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 100. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.

Thursday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. East southeast wind around 6 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Southeast wind 3-5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.

Friday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Southeast wind around 6 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.

Friday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.

Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8 a.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming west northwest 5-7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 40 percent.

Sunday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.

Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.