Helene Could Bring Deadly 20 Foot Storm Surge, Strengthen To Cat 4

Updated at 7:55 p.m. Wednesday

FLORIDA — Helene grew and gained strength after reaching Category 1 hurricane status Wednesday, with forecasters predicting it could become a catastrophic Category 4 storm as it intensifies in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Experts warn a catastrophic storm surge of 12 to 20 feet is possible in Florida's Big Bend area as Helene makes landfall as a major hurricane Thursday evening. Life-threatening storm surge is possible the length of the state's west coast. The Tampa Bay area is under a hurricane watch and a storm surge warning.

"A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves," the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 pm ET Wednesday briefing.

“Well, this isn’t good,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Wednesday afternoon Facebook post about the storm surge update. “The NHC has bumped up Storm Surge predictions ... from the Big Bend area to Citrus County. This is a surge that will rival Ian. If you live in this area and have been told to do so, please evacuate NOW. Anclote North has now been bumped up to 8 to 12 feet.That is coastal Pasco and Hernando counties. Again, evacuate if told to do so.”

AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said Helene could strengthen to a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall along the Florida Gulf coast with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 miles per hour.

“The impacts from Helene will be widespread — not just confined to locations near landfall in the Florida Panhandle. The storm surge will be life-threatening across the Florida Panhandle and southward to near Tampa. Destructive wind gusts could badly damage or even destroy homes and businesses. Countless trees will likely come down in this storm,” Porter warned.

The storm had 85 mph winds as of 7 p.m. ET with higher gusts, according to the National Hurricane Center. Category 1 hurricanes have sustained winds of at least 74 mph. Helene’s maximum sustained winds are forecast to increase by at least 35 mph, if not more, in less than 24 hours. (See all storm watches and warnings for Florida below.)

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Gov. Ron DeSantis warned residents they needed to make their final preparations on Wednesday ahead of Hurricane Helene's landfall in the Panhandle as anywhere from a Category 1 to Category 4 hurricane.

The governor urged coastal communities to heed evacuation orders, saying residents don’t need to drive hundreds of miles away from their homes but just find higher ground at a shelter, hotel or friend’s house.

Helene is moving toward the north-northwest at 12 mph, according to the latest NHC update. A turn toward the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later Wednesday through Thursday, bringing the center of Helene to the Florida Big Bend coast by Thursday evening.

Related: Hurricane Helene: See The List Of FL School, College Closures

"There is still some uncertainty on exactly how strong Helene will get, and upward adjustments to the forecast intensity could be required in subsequent advisories if Helene rapidly intensifies more than forecast," NOAA officials said. "Regardless, Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida."

Mandatory evacuation orders are in place for part or all of at least 12 coastal counties in Florida. Parts of Sarasota and Pinellas counties were placed under evacuation orders Wednesday.

A mandatory evacuation was ordered Wednesday for parts of Sarasota County, along with all mobile homes and boats there. The evacuation order includes specific neighborhoods such as Forked Creek in Englewood, Curry Creek in Venice and Hatchett Creek in Venice.

While Helene’s current forecast has it passing offshore of the county, it is expected to bring tropical storm force winds, life-threatening storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet and flash flooding to the Tampa-St. Pete area on Thursday.

A mandatory evacuation was also ordered Wednesday for everyone in Evacuation Zone A and all mobile homes throughout Pinellas County, officials said. This includes high-rise buildings in Evacuation Zone A. Those evacuating should have their evacuation completed and be in a safe place by Thursday at 8 a.m.

In Sarasota County, the hurricane is forecast to bring tropical storm force winds, life-threatening storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet and flash flooding on Thursday.

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Hurricane experts worry that Helene’s overall size and whip-fast forward speed will cause extra damage, keeping its strength longer as it penetrates inland into Georgia and beyond. With tropical storm force winds expected to extend for more than 200 miles, Hurricane Helene is forecast to be one of the largest storms in seven years to hit the Gulf of Mexico region, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

He said since 1988, only three Gulf of Mexico hurricanes have been bigger: 2017’s Irma, 2005’s Wilma and 1995’s Opal.

“By every measure, this makes it worse,” said University of Miami senior hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy. “Places that are not used to experiencing hurricanes are going to experience one.’’

The combination of deep warm water (ocean heat content) and low disruptive breezes (wind shear), should assist in rapid strengthening when Helene moves over the Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday to Thursday, Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather’s chief on-air meteorologist, said.

Multiple major airlines have issued travel alerts and advisories ahead of Tropical Storm Helene's expected landfall in the Big Bend region. Gov. Ron DeSantis updated a state of emergency Tuesday afternoon to include 61 of Florida’s 67 counties as Helene barrels across the Caribbean Sea.

A Tampa area forecaster said Helene should hit the state as a Category 3 storm, which means sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph. There is an outside chance it grows to a Category 4 stor with winds of 130 to 156 mph.

Once in the Gulf, rapid intensification is expected as Helene grows in size while churning toward Florida, forecasters said.

“It’s going to be a very large system with impacts across all of Florida,” said Larry Kelly, a specialist at the NHC.

John Porter, chief meteorologist for AccuWeather, said, "This can be a large hurricane with life-threatening impacts such as storm surge and flooding rain hundreds of miles away from where the storm makes landfall — be sure to know the risks you can face in your community.”

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Though the entire Florida peninsula will feel the effects of Helene, it’s expected to make landfall in the Big Bend area Thursday evening, according to the NHC.

The center of the storm, expected to reach Category 3 status, will track close to or over Tallahassee, Phillips wrote.

It could even reach Category 4 status while over the Gulf, forecasters said.

Helene is forecast to bring life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, heavy rains and flooding to the Sunshine State, NHC forecasters said.

Several counties on Florida’s west and northwestern coasts have issued evacuation orders.

Multiple school districts, including in the areas around Tampa and the state capital Tallahassee, plan to close schools or reduce hours starting Wednesday.

Some residents started filling sandbags ahead of anticipated flooding and began leaving areas on the coast.

Gov. Ron DeSantis updated a state of emergency Tuesday afternoon to include 61 of Florida’s 67 counties as Tropical Storm Helene barreled across the Caribbean Sea.

The state of emergency includes Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Brevard, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Duval, Escambia, Flagler, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Glades, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lake, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Nassau, Okaloosa, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Volusia, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington counties.

Hurricane and storm surge watches are already in place for much of Florida’s west coast. Tropical storm watches are in place for areas just inland.

More than 3 million people in Florida and Georgia are under a hurricane warning Wednesday morning, AccuWeather reported. Another 39.5 million people are under a tropical storm warning and 6 million are under a hurricane watch.

In the Tampa Bay area, the breeze will pick up Wednesday afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms, the National Weather Service said. By Wednesday night, showers and thunderstorms will spread from south to north as winds increase.

The region will see tropical storm and hurricane conditions, including storm surge, flooding, rainfall and isolated tornadoes Thursday, the NWS added.

The area can expect wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph in the afternoon and evening along the coast and less inland, Phillips wrote. Power outages are to be expected.

Storm surge caused by Helene will reach 5 to 8 feet in the Tampa Bay area, the NWS said.

“Water rise will be the highest Thursday evening,” Phillips wrote. “Don’t forget, hide from the wind and run from water.”

The Big Bend area, which is likely to be the hardest hit by the storm, the storm surge will range from 12 to 18 feet, forecasters said.

The tornado risk will increase Thursday afternoon and evening, Phillips added.

Friday will remain breezy with scattered storms and “lingering higher water levels” and scattered storms at night, NWS said.

Florida Storm Watches And Warnings

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

This article includes reporting by The Associated Press.