TS Idalia Likely To Become Hurricane Early Tuesday: NHC

Updated at 11:35 p.m.

FLORIDA — With Tropical Storm Idalia's winds hitting 70 mph and the storm creeping north as it approaches hurriane status, forecasters urged Florida residents to evacuate if they are in a storm surge risk area, and to have emergency supplies in place if they hunker down. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are becoming more likely for parts of the state, the National Hurricane Center said.

In its 11 p.m. briefing, the NHC said Idalia could become a hurricane at any time is expected to become a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Idalia was about 10 miles northwest of the western tip of Cuba with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph as of 11 p.m. ET. It was moving north at 8 mph, and will approach the Florida Peninsula Tuesday, likely bringing life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds, the NHC said late Monday.

Hurricane and storm surge warnings have been issued for parts of the Florida Gulf Coast. Much of the Tampa Bay area was placed under hurricane and storm surge warnings earlier Monday; 4 to 7 feet of seawater could swamp parts of the Tampa Bay.

Tolls in several Florida counties will be suspended early Tuesday to help with evacuations as Tropical Storm Idalia approaches the state, Gov. Ron DeSantis said. The Florida Department of Transportation said it will waive tolls beginning at 4 a.m. Tuesday in Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lake, Pasco, Pinellas and Sumter counties.

National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome said at 5:30 p.m. the storm is likely to continue moving north for the next day, then gradually turn to the northeast. Idalia should be a major hurricane as it approaches the Big Bend area, which could see 9 to 12 feet of storm surge.

Residents should have gasoline topped off in vehicles, food, prescriptions and other necessities as they shelter in place.

“It will not be safe to be moving about, not only during the storm, but it might not be safe to move about for several days after," Rhome said. "So get what you need to be comfortable for a couple of days.”

The NHC official said he expects a storm surge of 4 to 7 feet in Tampa Bay while 5 to 11 feet of storm surge is expected along the Nature Coast, which runs from Pasco County north to Indian Pass and westward to Mexico Beach. It includes eight counties: Wakulla, Jefferson, Taylor, Dixie, Levy, Citrus, Hernando and Pasco counties. the Cedar Key area. Residents there should evacuate if ordered to do so, Rhome said.

The hurricane watch that was in effect along the gulf coast has been upgraded to a hurricane warning and the storm surge watch is a storm surge warning for coastal areas in Citrus, Hernando, coastal Sarasota, Hillsborough, Levy, Manatee, Sumter and Pasco counties, plus inland Citrus and Pinellas counties.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for inland Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee and Polk counties and Charlotte, Lee, DeSotoHardee counties.

The hurricane and storm surge warnings have been extended westward to Indian Pass and Mexico Beach.

In southwest Florida, the National Hurricane Center is predicting 2 to 4 feet of storm surge from middle Longboat Key south to Chokoloskee, the area hardest hit by and still recovering from Hurricane Ian in September.

Storm surge warnings have also been issued for Georgia and South Carolina's coastal areas.The storm surge and tropical storm watches along the southeast coast of the U.S. have been extended northward to South Santee River.

A hurricane warning means hurricane-force winds are expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours, the National Weather Service said.

A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours. Winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph are expected Tuesday evening until Wednesday afternoon.

The NHC urged residents along Florida's west coast to begin preparing for a hurricane strike on late Tuesday afternoon or evening. Schools in a number of counties along the Gulf Coast will be closed Tuesday and Wednesday, and the Tampa airport will shut down entirely at midnight Tuesday, with plans to reopen Thursday.

"It's going to be a major hurricane and we want to make sure everyone is prepared," said Gov. Ron DeSantis. "There's no way you're going to get through this storm without losing power. You're going to see a lot of knocked-down trees hitting power lines. I've already spoken to the utility companies and they have linemen ready to go.The quicker we can get power back up, the better off everyone will be."

According to the National Hurricane Center, Idalia is expected to hit the Nature Coast as a Category 3 hurricane with 111 to 129 mph winds or a Category 4 hurricane with 130 to 159 mph winds Wednesday morning.

"However, as we've seen in the past, the jet stream could push the storm further east and it could cut across the interior of the state," DeSantis said.

As a result, on Monday afternoon, DeSantis added another 13 counties to the counties in the state under a state of emergency for a total of 46 counties.

Kevin Guthrie, director of the Florida Emergency Management Division, said Tampa Bay will begin feeling the impact of the hurricane Tuesday night "and by Wednesday at 1 or 2 a.m., we will have a Category 3 hurricane located off the coast of Pinellas County with significant winds and storm surge including 115 mph winds along Pinellas County's barrier islands.

Related:

• How To Prepare Your Home, Family For Hurricane As Idalia Approaches
• Tampa International Airport To Close As Idalia Approaches FL
• DeSantis Pauses Presidential Campaign For Hurricane Response
• TS Idalia: Hillsborough Declares Emergency, Closes Schools, Sandbags
• Manatee Evacuations, School Closures, Shelters Opening: TS Idalia
• TS Idalia: Pasco County Declares Mandatory Evacuations, Schools Closed

A few tornadoes will be possible starting Tuesday along the west central Florida coast and the tornado threat will spread northward into the Florida Big Bend area by Tuesday night, forecasters said.

Rhome said Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane when it nears western Monday night and will become a "dangerous major hurricane" over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday with tropical storm-force winds extending outward up to 70 miles.

"In terms of intensity, it's increasing in intensity to 100 mph, so this is now forecast to be a very significant and impactful hurricane approaching the Florida peninsula on Tuesday," he said. "For that reason, we have issued tropical storms watches and hurricane watches for the Florida peninsula.

"A hurricane watch means it's time to start moving toward potential hurricane conditions. That means, make sure you're in a position to protect your home by covering windows and doors, remember that the garage door is often the weakest point in your home. "Start thinking about what you're going to do with your pets if you have to evacuate, charge your phone, fill your vehicles up with fuel and make sure you know if you're in an evacuation zone."

Rhome urged Floridians not to focus only on the wind cones in the hurricane models.

"The winds will extend loosely beyond the cone, so do not focus exclusively on the cone," he said. "On Tuesday morning, hurricane force winds will begin picking up in central Florida and west-central Florida, and Tuesday afternoon for northern Florida. That's basically eight hours away."

In addition to the hurricane warning and watch in effect, Rhone said there is a third watch that focuses on life-threatening storm surge possible from lower southeast Florida all the way to Indian Pass in the Panhandle.

Rhome said the impact of storm surge is often the most devastating aspect of a hurricane so it's important for residents to check and know which evacuation zone they're in.

Each Florida county emergency management department has a website showing maps of evacuation zones.

To summarize:

• A storm surge watch is in effect for Chokoloskee to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay
• A hurricane watch is in effect for Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay
• A tropical storm watch is in effect for south of Englewood to Chokoloskee and the lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge.
• A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
• A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 48 hours.
• A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
• A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
• A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

The combination of dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the west coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

• Aucilla River to Chassahowitzka — 7 to 11 feet
• Chassahowitzka to the Anclote River — 6 to 9 feet
• Ochlockonee River to the Aucilla River — 4 to 7 feet
• Anclote River to the middle of Longboat Key — 4 to 7 feet
• Tampa Bay — 4 to 7 feet
• Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood — 3 to 5 feet
• Englewood to Chokoloskee — 2 to 4 feet
• Charlotte Harbor — 2 to 4 feet
• Indian Pass to the Ochlockonee River — 2 to 4 feet
• Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable — 1 to 3 feet
• Florida Keys — 1 to 2 feet.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

Rhome said surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas are expected to receive 4 to 8 inches from Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches are possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday

Measuring Hurricane Winds On Saffir-Simpson Scale

Hurricanes are measured 1 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. While the scale makes references to wind speed, it’s really concerned with the type of damage that winds at particular speeds will create – in other words, intensity, which is not always a direct link to wind speed.

Category 1

Sustained winds of 74-95 mph. “Very dangerous winds will produce some damage.”
A Category 1 hurricane could destroy older mobile homes and damage newer ones and poorly built houses. Well-built homes could have damage to shingles, siding, gutters and soffit panels.

Category 2

Sustained winds of 96-110 mph. “Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage.”
“Substantial risk of injury or death to people, livestock and pets.”

Mobile homes built before 1994 will probably be destroyed, as will some newer ones, and some poorly built homes. Porches and gables of well-built homes could be damaged. Unreinforced masonry walls will collapse. Near total power loss expected.

Category 3

Sustained winds of 111-129 mph. “Devastating damage will occur.”

Poorly built frame homes will be wrecked. Unprotected windows will be broken by flying debris. Well-built homes will be damaged, older metal buildings will fail.

Category 4
Sustained winds of 130-156 mph. “Catastrophic damage will occur.”

Well-built homes will lose or suffer damage to most of their roofs and exterior walls. Top floors of apartment buildings will be damaged, and fallen trees and wires will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks or months, and most of the area will be uninhabitable.

Category 5

Sustained winds greater than 157 mph. A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed with total roof failure and wall collapse. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted. Power outages will last for weeks or months, and most of the area will be uninhabitable.