FL 2022 Summer Forecast: Early-Season 'Tropical Trouble' Possible

FLORIDA — Florida residents and visitors should not bank on a beach day every day, according to AccuWeather's recently released 2022 summer forecast. Blame the hot weather coupled with two to three days of weekly rain, forecasters said.

"You're still going to get a hot day here and there, and I do think it's going to be a decent but not a great beach summer," Accuweather's Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.

The private weather company said that the Southeast U.S., including Florida, also has an early-season tropical system on tap, which could have multi-day, far-reaching impacts including rough surf, rip currents, wind and rain.

The areas at the highest risk for an early-season tropical impact include the central Gulf Coast and most of Florida, but other regions, including North Carolina's popular Outer Banks, cannot be completely ruled out from an early-season impact, AccuWeather said.

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to ramp up in late summer and early fall.

Though the season for trips to the beach, vacations and other outdoor fun doesn't officially begin until the summer solstice on June 21, meteorological summer starts Wednesday. Summer-like temperatures have already arrived in Southern California, while people in the northern Plains are still shivering under persistent blasts of arctic air and blizzard conditions, AccuWeather said.

SEE ALSO:

• Summer In Florida Will Be 'Sizzling,' Farmers' Almanac Says

All that will be a distant memory soon, according to Pastelok. Whether you live in a specific area or are planning a vacation, here's what you need to know about summer 2022.

Rain, Tornadoes, Derechos

People living in the Northeast and Midwest can expect a wet spring to continue into summer. That could disrupt some summer activities. But look at it this way: You won't have to water the lawn as much, Pastelok said. On the other hand, "you're going to have to probably cut the lawn often," and finding a window to do that may be difficult.

More moisture could mean more-severe storms, including damaging tornadoes, in the Northeast through midsummer and in the Midwest in June and July. Read More: Active 2022 Tornado Season Expected

Meteorologists are concerned about some weather pattern similarities to 2012, a summer that produced a derecho that ripped across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic. A derecho is essentially an inland hurricane with destructive winds at least 58 mph that spans at least 240 miles.

This year, the areas at the highest risk of a derecho are the Midwest, Ohio Valley and parts of the mid-Atlantic.

Drought Relief?

Drought conditions are persistent from Texas to Montana, with most of the High Plains experiencing severe to extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
That's expected to change, but not for the better.

"The High Plains is going to end up being drier and drier and drier as we go into the first part of the summer season," Pastelok said. "So, I don't see any relief coming that way from any big [thunderstorm] complexes developing."

He said some temporary drought relief is expected from "a pretty decent annual monsoon season" over the Rocky Mountains and Four Corners areas of southwest Colorado, southeast Utah, northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico.

That could disrupt outdoor plans across the interior West, including trips to visit landmarks such as the Grand Canyon in Arizona, Zion and Arches national parks in Utah, and the Rocky Mountains in Colorado.

And with the monsoon season comes increased risk for lightning strikes, which could ignite fires, and a risk of mudslides. "So it's not all good news, but it is good news as far as water goes," Pastelok said.

The fire season has already started in the Four Corners area.

Another Active Fire Season

Temperatures will be 6 and 8 degrees cooler than those experienced last year from Seattle to Salt Lake City in early summer, but the cool and periodically rainy season won't last long, AccuWeather writes. Along with the rest of the West Coast, the Pacific Northwest will see warm, dry conditions by midsummer, according to AccuWeather.

Although the monsoon season will bring some temporary relief, drought conditions in the interior Southwest will continue to deplete reservoirs and could lead to water restrictions and hydroelectric power disruptions.

Because of the drought, the Southern California wildfire season could pick up in June and become more widespread in the western U.S. through July and August.

This article contains reporting from the Patch national desk.