Tropical Storm Ian: Keys Under TS Warning, Fort Myers Area Under Watch

Updated at 11:10 p.m.

FLORIDA — A tropical storm warning has been issued for the lower Florida Keys and a tropical storm watch is posted for part of western Florida as Tropical Storm Ian grows stronger and slowly treks toward Florida. Forecasters expect the storm to become a hurricane by Monday and reach major hurricane strength Tuesday before it reaches Cuba.

The tropical storm warning covers from Seven Mile Bridge southward to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Englewood southward to Chokoloskee in the Fort Myers area.

And a storm surge watch is in effect for: the Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West; Dry Tortugas; west coast of Florida from Englewood southward to the Card Sound Bridge; and Florida Bay.

Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected in the Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula, with local maximums up to 6 inches beginning Monday through Wednesday evening, the NHC said.

Heavy rainfall may affect north Florida, the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Southeast on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

There’s still a significant amount of uncertainty about where exactly it will land in the Sunshine State by mid-week, though. Gov. Ron DeSantis held a press conference in Tallahassee Sunday to urge residents across the state to prepare for a possible hurricane and widespread power outages.

Experts say that everyone in the Florida Panhandle and along the state’s west coast should be prepared for a major storm.

About 140 miles south of the Cayman Islands with 65 mph winds late Sunday, Ian is expected to bring hurricane or tropical storm conditions to Grand Cayman starting early Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm will pass near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday, then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

"Additional strengthening is forecast tonight, followed by more rapid strengthening on Monday and Tuesday," the NHC said in its 8 p.m. update Sunday. "Ian is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday."

All of Florida has been under a state of emergency since Saturday, which allows for weight restrictions on trucks to be waived and emergency refills of prescriptions for 30 days. The Florida National Guard has also activated 2,500 members to support any recovery efforts.

In particular, residents on the western coast of Florida and the Panhandle should have supplies of fuel, food, and water on hand.

“Anticipate power outages,” DeSantis said, according to WFLA. “That is something that is likely to happen with a hurricane of this magnitude.”

• Related: How To Prepare For Power Outages: Tropical Storm Ian

“I just can't say this strongly enough, we need to continue to prepare for Tropical Storm Ian later this week. This track is far from set in stone. Timing has slowed to Wednesday through Friday,” Denis Phillips, the meteorologist for ABC in the Tampa Bay area, shared on social media Sunday morning.

• Also Read: How To Prepare Your Home, Family For Tropical Storm Ian

As of Sunday afternoon, forecasting models show Ian hitting different parts of the state, he noted. “The American model (GFS) continues a track into the Panhandle. The Euro is not budging and keeps the path into the (Tampa) Bay Area. The (National Hurricane Center) track splits the difference. Even with all the new data added, the tracks have not come together.”

And regardless of where it hits, the storm “will become a strong hurricane in the Gulf and will have impacts of surge, strong (possibly destructive) winds and heavy rains,” Phillips added.

The storm is forecast to be a major hurricane Tuesday when it passes near or over western Cuba, the agency added.

Ian will likely “undergo rapid intensification in the days ahead,” during its northward turn, because of subsiding wind shear, according to AccuWeather forecasters.

It could develop into a Category 2 storm by the time it reaches Grand Cayman Monday morning and a Category 4 with wind gusts higher than 120 mph by the time it gets to Cuba, AccuWeather forecast graphics show.

“Along the system's path through the western Caribbean islands, there will be the risk of widespread power outages, torrential rain and flooding as well as dangerous and damaging seas,” the AccuWeather team said.

From there, it’s uncertain what will happen, especially its precise impact on Florida.

NHC forecasters expect it to remain a major hurricane as it moves generally north across the eastern Gulf of Mexico mid-week.

“Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of the week, but uncertainty in the long-term track and intensity forecasts is higher than usual," the NHC said. "Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of the week, and residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.”

Ian’s exact track across the Gulf will be determined by a southward dip in the jet stream across the U.S., according to AccuWeather forecasters. That dip could push the system north or northeast and the jet stream’s speed will play a key role in carving out Ian’s exact path.

“This is one of those frustrating situations where we're just unable to give a definite answer on track,” Phillips noted in a Facebook post. “Just a slight wobble either way would have a massive impact (positive OR negative) on our (Tampa Bay) area.”

In the meantime, experts and officials are urging people in Florida’s Panhandle and along the Sunshine State’s west coast to prepare for a hit.

“This storm has the potential to strengthen into a major hurricane and we encourage all Floridians to make their preparations,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said in a statement. “We are coordinating with all state and local government partners to track potential impacts of this storm.”

NHC added, “Residents in Florida should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials and closely monitor updates to the forecast.”