EPA Auto Emissions Proposal Aims To Spur Illinois EV Sales

ILLINOIS — Electric vehicle sales in Illinois could get a boost as the Biden administration proposes strict new automobile pollution limits that would require as many as two-thirds of new vehicles sold in the United States to be electric by 2032.

The proposed tailpipe emission limits for model years 2027 through 2032, announced Wednesday by the Environmental Protection Agency, are the strictest ever proposed, and call for more EV sales than the auto industry agreed to less than two years ago.

U.S. car buyers registered more than 1.45 million electric vehicles in the calendar year ending Dec. 31, 2021, according to the latest data available from the Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Some 36,520 of those were in Illinois.

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The proposal doesn’t require a specific number of electric vehicles be sold every year, instead mandating limits on greenhouse gasses. Depending on how automakers comply, the EPA projects at least 60 percent of new passenger vehicles sold in the United States would be electric by 2030 and up to 67 percent by 2032. For slightly larger, medium-duty trucks, the EPA projects 46 percent of new vehicle sales will be EVs in 2032.

The plan, which is expected to be finalized next year, is the strongest push yet toward a shift from gasoline- to battery-powered vehicles and part of President Joe Biden’s plan to cut America’s planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030.

The proposed standards are expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 56 percent from existing standards for the model year 2026, the EPA said. The agency said that would improve air quality for communities across the nation, avoiding nearly 10 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions, more than twice the total U.S. CO2 emissions last year.

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Carbon emissions in Illinois were reduced by more than 31 percent from 1970-2020, and by 16.5 percent from 2019-2020, according to data from the U.S. Energy Administration. The emissions are calculated across all energy sectors, from direct fuel use across all sectors, including residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation, as well as primary fuels consumed for electricity generation.

The combustion of fossil fuels such as gasoline and diesel to transport people and goods was the largest source of CO2 emissions in 2020, accounting for about 33 percent of total U.S. CO2 emissions and 26 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, according to the EPA.
Electric power generates the second-largest share of greenhouse gas emissions at 25 percent.

EPA Administrator Michael Regan called the proposal “the most ambitious pollution standards ever for cars and trucks,” and he said it would reduce dangerous air and climate pollution and lower fuel and maintenance costs for families.

Many Americans aren’t sold on the history-making shift from gas-powered vehicles.

About 4 in 10 U.S. adults are at least somewhat likely to switch to an electric vehicle, with high prices and too few charging stations the main deterrents, according to the poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago.

EV sales have accounted for just 7.2 percent of U.S. vehicle sales in the first quarter of this year. White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi said EV sales have tripled since Biden took office, and the number of available EV models has doubled.

Besides stricter pollution rules, tax credits for EV manufacturing and purchases included in the sweeping Inflation Reduction Act passed last year will help reach the tougher requirements, the White House and its allies said.

At present, many new EVs manufactured in North America are eligible for a $7,500 tax credit, while used EVs can get up to $4,000. However, there are price and purchaser income limits that make some vehicles ineligible. And starting April 18, new requirements by the Treasury Department will result in fewer new electric vehicles qualifying for a full $7,500 federal tax credit.

John Bozzella, the CEO of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade group representing automakers, called the EPA proposal “aggressive by any measure,” and wrote in a statement that it exceeds the Biden administration’s 50 percent electric vehicle target for 2030 that was announced less than two years ago.

Reaching half was always a “stretch goal,” contingent on manufacturing incentives and tax credits to make EVs more affordable, he wrote. It remains to be seen whether those provisions are enough to support electric vehicle sales at the level the EPA has proposed, he wrote.

“The question isn’t can this be done, it’s how fast can it be done,” Bozzella wrote. “How fast will depend almost exclusively on having the right policies and market conditions in place.”

Zaidi told reporters at the White House Tuesday that automakers “have the technology and the infrastructure and supply chain to be able to achieve this with the lead time they’ve got.”

Since Biden took office, the industry has announced over $100 billion in EV investments, Zaidi said.

The Associated Press contributed reporting.