How A La Niña Winter Could Affect Illinois Home Heating Bills

ILLINOIS — Heating costs in Illinois and the Midwest will increase this year, since last year's winter was very mild. The expected return to more normal winter temperatures will outweigh the effect of lower energy prices, the government said in a recent 2024-25 winter fuels outlook.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast, heating costs in Illinois and the Midwest are expected to be:

• Natural gas: Costs will be up by 11 percent over last year.
• Electricity: Costs will be up by 6 percent over last year.
• Propane: A 2 percent increase over last year.
• Heating oil: Overall, across the United States, expenditures for heating oil will be down 5 percent from last year.

With a more seasonal winter expected this year for the Midwest, home heating costs could rise between 2 percent and 11 percent, depending on the energy source.

That’s assuming the forecast for La Niña winter to develop plays out. An updated winter outlook last week from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls for an equal chance for above or below normal temperatures in Illinois. However, if you're wondering about snow, seasonal precipitation looks to be above normal with wetter-than-average conditions for Illinois, according to the outlook.

Outside of the Midwest, the lower prices and colder weather may combine for relatively little change in home heating costs. The South and West can even expect to see an overall decrease in natural gas costs this winter.

"The price of crude is a wild card. Rising tensions in the Middle East raise “the possibility of oil supply disruption and future crude oil price increases,” the EIA said.