How Much Snow Can IL Expect This Winter? See New AccuWeather Forecast

ILLINOIS — How cold and snow will the upcoming winter be in Illinois? A new AccuWeather 2024-25 winter forecast released this week predicts a pretty snowy winter for the Chicago area, especially compared to last year.

The private weather company said in its forecast, released Monday, that winter will have some “meteorological twists and turns” that could bring bursts of heavy snow and blasts of bitterly cold air.

Meteorological winter begins on Sunday, Dec. 1, and astronomical winter begins on Dec. 21, the date of the winter solstice and the shortest day of the year.

AccuWeather also predicted that it will be warmer than normal this winter for Chicago, with a below average demand for heating across the northern half of the state.

“La Niña will be weak for most of the winter,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist and long-range expert Paul Pastelok said. “A weaker La Niña can allow other signals to drive the pattern, more variability throughout the winter.”

February is the most probable month for the arrival of a polar vortex — a large area of cold, low-pressure air rotating counterclockwise around Earth’s poles that can expand in the winter and send cold air southward. However, there’s less certainty this year about when, or if, the extreme cold air will make it to the continental U.S.

Most areas in the Northeast and Midwest will see more snow this year than last, with predictions returning to near historical averages in cities such as Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Chicago and Buffalo, New York.

Chicago is predicted to get between 30 and 45 inches of snow this winter, which is more than the 22.2 inches of snow received in the 2023-24 winter. The average snowfall, using data from 1991 to 2020, is 38.4 inches.

Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and other Midwest states could also see an uptick in snow. However, periods of snowy, cold weather could be broken up by the arrival of milder air from the Pacific flows across the country, beginning in early 2025, according to AccuWeather.

Winter is expected to feel like an extension of fall in the South, central southern Plains states, through the Mississippi Valley and up the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. When storms do arrive, they could bring a heightened risk of severe weather.

• Related: What Do Woolly Bears And Persimmons Say About 2024-25 La Niña Winter?

“You need to be aware of severe weather in the winter. We’ve seen in the past damaging thunderstorms in December, January, and February,” said Pastelok. “With mild air masses coming out of the west during the month of January, we could see the potential for severe weather farther north into places like Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee. As the jet stream dips farther south in February, we could start to see more severe weather in the Gulf coast states with warmer air and warmer waters from the Gulf of Mexico.”

Mild weather is expected to continue across parts of the West, with the frequency of rain (or snow in the Mountains) could increase in November and December

“I think skiing in the West is looking really good,” Pastelok said. “I think it’s going to get kick-started right for the holiday season.”

The ski season in the mountains of Southern California, northern Arizona and New Mexico could come to an early end, but conditions look good in the Pacific Northwest and central Rockies.

That’s what happened in the La Niña winter of 2022-23 when nearly 40 atmospheric rivers hit the western U.S., many of which impacted California.