Illinois Among Most 'Vulnerable' Housing Markets In The Nation: Report

ILLINOIS — If you're in the market for a new home, or considering selling one, it might be a good time to do some extra research. According to ATTOM, a leading curator of real estate data nationwide for land and property data, Illinois is among the states with the highest concentration of housing markets considered "vulnerable" to declines, based on home affordability, unemployment and other measures in the first quarter of 2022.

More specifically, the reports finds the Chicago area is most exposed to downturns.

The first-quarter 2022 patterns — based on home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment — revealed that New Jersey, Illinois and California had 34 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to the potential declines. ATTOM found that the 50 most at-risk included eight counties in the Chicago metropolitan area.

The eight most at-risk counties in Chicagoland are:

• DeKalb (ranked No. 6 overall) — population: 100,420; housing units: 41,311; Q1 median sales price: $200,000; percent of income to buy: 27.3%; Q1 property foreclosure filings: 81; 1 of every 510 properties foreclosed; March 2022 unemployment rate: 5.0.
• Will (ranked No. 9 overall) — population: 696.355; housing units: 250,678; Q1 median sales price: $269,000; percent of income to buy: 32.9%; Q1 property foreclosure filings: 453; 1 of every 553 properties foreclosed; March 2022 unemployment rate: 4.2.
• Lake (ranked No. 11 overall) — population: 714,342; housing units: 269,378; Q1 median sales price: $285,000; percent of income to buy: 23.1%; Q1 property foreclosure filings: 371; 1 of every 726 properties foreclosed; March 2022 unemployment rate: 5.0.
• Kankakee (ranked No. 16 overall) — population: 107,502; housing units: 45,270; Q1 median sales price: $51,604; percent of income to buy: 21%; Q1 property foreclosure filings: 44; 1 of every 1,028 properties foreclosed; March 2022 unemployment rate: 6.0.
• Cook (ranked No. 17 overall) — population: 5,275,541; housing units: 2,264,9661; Q1 median sales price: $258,000; percent of income to buy: 20.6%; Q1 property foreclosure filings: 3,612; 1 of every 627 properties foreclosed; March 2022 unemployment rate: 4.9.
• McHenry (ranked No. 19 overall) — population: 310,229; housing units: 119,708; Q1 median sales price: $259,462; percent of income to buy: 35.2%; Q1 property foreclosure filings: 179; 1 of every 668 properties foreclosed; March 2022 unemployment rate: 3.4.
• Winnebago (ranked No. 27 overall) — population: 285,350; housing units: 124,983; Q1 median sales price: $125,000; percent of income to buy: 16.2%; Q1 property foreclosure filings: 199; 1 of every 6280 properties foreclosed; March 2022 unemployment rate: 8.3.
• Kendall (ranked No. 30 overall) — population: 131,869; housing units: 45,008; Q1 median sales price: $275,000; percent of income to buy: 41.8%; Q1 property foreclosure filings: 641; 1 of every 703 properties foreclosed; March 2022 unemployment rate: 3.2.

Home prices climbed more than 15 percent in most of the country over the past year, with new highs reached in about half the nation, according to ATTOM. But interest rates on 30-year mortgages have climbed to 6 percent, worsening affordability for prospective homebuyers. Home sales have declined every month in 2022, and home-price appreciation continues to show signs of retreating rapidly, according to the report.

"The housing market has been one of the strongest components of the U.S. economy since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic," said Rick Sharga, ATTOM's executive vice president of market intelligence. "But Federal Reserve actions aimed at bringing inflation down from its 41-year high are having an immediate impact on home affordability, sales and pricing. Whether the Fed can execute a relatively soft landing, or inadvertently steers the economy into a recession, will determine the fate of the housing market over the next 12-18 months."

If you're looking for a more stable housing market, you're more likely to find one if you head South, according to ATTOM. The South had the highest concentration of markets least vulnerable to declines, the report says.

Twenty-six of the least vulnerable counties were in the South, while only five are in the Northeast, ATTOM says. Tennessee had eight of the 50 least at-risk counties, including five in Nashville's metropolitan area.

The ATTOM Special Housing Risk Report is based on ATTOM’s first-quarter 2022 residential foreclosure, home affordability and underwater property reports, plus March 2022 unemployment figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Read ATTOM's full report here.