Will IL Predict Presidential Winner?: Illinois’ Voting History

ILLINOIS — In the weeks and months leading up to Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have crisscrossed the country, spending most of their time in swing states, including nearby Michigan and Wisconsin. Their trips to Illinois have been few and far between, for good reason, since the Land of Lincoln is largely regarded as a blue state.

But that doesn’t mean the outcome of the presidential race is a foregone conclusion in Illinois. Every vote counts, and every election is different — and Illinois has voted for both red and blue candidates in its long history.

Polls are now closed in Illinois, and early numbers showed Harris with 37,568 votes to Trump's 25,553.

Illinois Presidential Voting Trends

In 31 presidential races spanning from 1900 to 2020, it’s been a pretty even split: Illinois has chosen the Republican candidate 15 times, and the Democratic candidate 16 times.

Despite the even split over the last 120 years, it’s been a while since the Land of Lincoln has chosen a Republican candidate for president. It last happened in 1988, when Republican President George H.W. Bush defeated former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis.

And it seems like Illinois is good at predicting the winning presidential candidate, at least over the long term. Over that same 120-year period, Illinois has chosen the candidate who ultimately won the election 83.9 percent of the time, according to Ballotpedia.

That was not the case on Tuesday, with the Associated Press calling the race for Trump.

Across a shorter span of time — between 2000 and 2020 — Illinois has picked the winner less frequently, voting for the winning candidate 50 percent of the time. Over those two decades, Illinois has chosen the Democratic candidate every time.

Last time around, in 2020, current President Joe Biden won Illinois with more than 57 percent of the vote — an even stronger showing than former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016, when she captured 55.8 percent of Illinois’ vote. Meanwhile, Trump snagged 42 percent of the Illinois vote in 2020 and just under 39 percent in 2016.

Another interesting note: Despite Illinois’ propensity for voting blue for president, over nearly the last half-century, Illinois has more frequently chosen a Republican governor than a Democratic one. Between 1978 and 2022, Illinois has chosen seven Republican governors and five Democrats to lead the state. The state chose Republican governors seven elections in a row, between 1978 and 2002, ending when Democrat Rod Blagojevich was elected.

Illinois Electoral Votes

Because of the Electoral College, it’s the candidate with the most electoral votes — not necessarily the winner of the popular vote — who wins each presidential election.

Illinois has 19 electoral votes — the most of any state in the Midwest, making it a big win for the presidential candidate that sways Illinois voters. But that number used to be higher.

In fact, this will be the first presidential election since 1868 in which Illinois has not had 20 or more electoral votes.

According to the website 270ToWin, “Like many other northern industrial states, Illinois has lost electoral influence as its population has not grown with the rest of the country. The 2020 Census marked the fifth consecutive Census where the state has lost at least one electoral vote.”

Illinois’ electoral vote count went as high as 29 in 1912, but began dropping little by little in 1944.

4 Presidents With Illinois Ties

While four former U.S. presidents have called Illinois home, only one was actually born here. Ronald Reagan, the 40th president, was born in Tampico, Illinois, but by the time he was elected in 1980, he was primarily affiliated with the state of California.

Giving Illinois its nickname of the “Land of Lincoln,” 16th President Abraham Lincoln is well known for his connection to the state, but he was born in a log cabin on a farm in Kentucky, where he spent the first seven years of his life before his family made the trek to southwestern Indiana.

He moved to Illinois at the age of 21, first residing in Macon County before striking out on his own. He went on to establish a successful law practice in Springfield — where you can still visit his former home. Lincoln served as a state legislator and U.S. representative for Illinois before winning the 1860 presidential election.

You can also visit 18th President Ulysses S. Grant’s former home in Galena, Illinois, and despite also being most strongly associated with Illinois, he was born in Point Pleasant, Ohio. He moved to Galena in 1860, taking a job at his father’s leather good business. He went on to lead the Union Army to victory in the Civil War and to become president, but kept his legal residence in Galena.

Barack Obama, the 45th president, is also most closely associated with Illinois — previously calling Chicago’s South Side his home, teaching at the University of Chicago Law School, serving in the Illinois Senate and representing Illinois in the U.S. Senate. But he was born in Hawaii and lived for several years in Indonesia as a child before returning to Hawaii, only moving to Chicago as an adult.

Neither of the 2024 presidential candidates is from Illinois, but one of them previously called the state home.

Though she was born in Oakland, California, and also served as the state’s attorney general and represented California in the U.S. Senate, Harris spent some of her childhood in Illinois.

As a toddler, she moved to Evanston, where both of her parents worked for Northwestern University. Before that, the family spent a year in Champaign, where her parents worked at the University of Illinois.

Related: Kamala Harris’ Evanston Home Now Houses Northwestern's African Studies Program

Trump, on the other hand, has some business interests in the Land of Lincoln, including the Trump International Hotel & Tower in Chicago.