Can RFK win IL in November

If you watched the Super Bowl on Sunday February 11th one of the commercials that might have stood out was the RFK super pac commercial. It was a rendition of his famous Uncles campaign song from the 1960 election. I thought it was brilliant personally. Most of the time the independent candidate is not much of a factor in elections other than taking away votes from one party or another. Ross Perot ran in 1992 and got just under 20 million votes. While he got no electoral votes many believe he helped the Clinton campaign beat incumbent George Bush Sr.

This isn’t a normal type of independent candidate though, this is a Kennedy! I am not sure Kennedy can get any electoral votes as well, but this push as an independent seems to be more acceptable in today’s political climate. For starters, many polls show a Biden/Trump rematch is very unfavorable but it doesn’t appear to impact any primaries thus far (we are seeing low turnout % wise on both sides to be fair). Does this make Kennedy a candidate who could win electoral votes?

Let's take IL for example, the Kennedy name is affiliated with the Daley machine and could have a strong presence in the moderate factions of the Democratic and Republican party. Biden defeated Trump here 57.5% to 40.6% in what was a very large turnout due to covid. We had just under 7 million votes in that election. With issues like Immigration, Israel/Gaza, crime and inflation Biden has plummeted in recent national polls and IL is no different. Trump is appealing to voters in the inner city with his stances against these items but history shows us that doesn’t mean much come election time. Trump's base composes around 20-30% of the voting block which leaves around 20-10% of his votes coming elsewhere.

Kennedy’s platform seems to be split between both parties' company lines. He’s anti-vax but pro choice. He is on board with climate change but disagrees with funding foreign wars. He has issues with the 2nd amendment but wants to build the wall. He has crafted his message “Declare your independence” as a measure to ignite the American innovative and revolutionary spirit against the status quo.

If Kennedy could win electoral votes, IL seems to be one of the best places to spring an upset. Primarily Democratic voters here with strong union family lineages. His family name is one of the strongest brands in this country and he seems to have the passion for the job. On the health side he looks like he has kept up with his exercise routines and would make both Trump and Biden look old in a televised debate. I believe Biden has the most to be concerned with Kennedy in this race. IL has voted for Kennedy before and if you’re not happy with the selections is giving Kennedy a vote an option in IL come November???