State Revenues Exceed Forecast Again After September Lull

By Whitney Downard, Indiana Capital Chronicle

November 10, 2022

Following a September lull in which revenues missed the forecasted amounts for the first time in a year, October’s gains exceeded predictions by $184.7 million, or 12.6%.

Revenues for the month totaled $1.7 billion, or $283.5 million (20.7%) higher than October of 2021.

The monthly revenue report credited that increase to better-than-expected individual income tax collections delayed from the previous month, which contributed $64 million, in addition to $6 million in delayed corporate tax collections.

With that $70 million excluded, revenues for October would total $1.6 billion, or $114.1 million, 7.8%, above the monthly estimate.

On top of that, increased tax withholdings in October helped push collections out of September’s lull because the month had five Fridays.

“Historically, the number of Fridays affects the timing of payments from month to month and the revenue impact has typically been between 10 to 20 percent greater whenever a month has the fifth Friday compared to the more common four Fridays in every month,” the report said.

Outside of the income and corporation tax collections, sales tax revenues were slightly above their projections, bolstering the state’s General Fund. The state received $861.2 million in sales taxes in October, $36.3 million, 4.4%, more than anticipated.

But Riverboat wagering taxes collected continued their slump, falling $3 million, 13.8%, short of their estimate for a total of $18.5 million. Compared to October of 2021, those revenues were $8.2 million, or 30.6%, lower. However, changes in gaming taxes has shifted how the state collects those taxes.

September’s report credited the month’s drop to the delayed income tax payments and the repeal of certain utility taxes passed by the legislature over the summer. Typically, September would be one of the most important revenue months for corporate taxes, hence why the delay.

Lawmakers will use the next forecast, due in December, to inform their budget-drafting process when they write the state’s two-year plan for spending in fiscal years 2023 and 2024.

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