At This Week's MACo Gathering, It's Already 2026 And ‘Unpredictable' Is The Watchword

By Josh Kurtz, Maryland Matters

August 11, 2025

The annual Maryland Association of Counties summer conference has evolved into several things over the years.

It’s a forum for wonky discussions about near- and long-term policy and budgetary challenges. An opportunity for local bureaucrats to network and refresh their professional skills and credentials. A venue for vendors to peddle their services to government procurement officers. A chance for the governor to report to his fellow policymakers.

And it’s become party central, with a dizzying array of round-the-clock fundraisers, receptions and other social gatherings at bars and restaurants throughout Ocean City.

But at its most basic level, MACo is the biggest gathering of Maryland’s political clan of the year. So with the critical 2026 elections just around the corner, the political landscape is sure to be Topic A as Maryland leaders descend on the state’s top resort town for sand, surf, strategizing and soothsaying.

At first glance, 2026 in Maryland appears to be a sleepier and less consequential cycle than the historic election of 2022, when there were vacancies for all four statewide offices – governor, lieutenant governor, comptroller and attorney general – and voters chose trailblazers for each position.

All four – Gov. Wes Moore (D) and his running mate, Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller (D), along with Comptroller Brooke Lierman (D) and Attorney General Anthony Brown (D) – are early favorites for reelection. Some may have no serious opposition at all.

But with the national political dynamic so tumultuous – and with Maryland disproportionately impacted by the chaos and uncertainty in the federal government – state and local races will be affected in myriad, incalculable ways. Moore’s prominence as a probable presidential contender in 2028 will add to the weight and scrutiny of the 2026 outcome here.

“I think unpredictable is the word,” said Jessica Haire, a Republican former county councilmember from Anne Arundel County, who is chair of Opportunity Maryland, an advocacy group promoting economic growth and free market policies.

Maryland’s elections coincide with a period of instability and voter anger rarely seen in modern politics. National polls show voters deeply unhappy with both major political parties. And that could produce some surprising results in Maryland and beyond.

“The word that keeps coming back to me is disquiet – there’s disquiet in the electorate,” said Len Foxwell, a Democratic consultant.

Ordinarily, in the first midterm election of a president’s term, the “out” party makes significant gains, and there are certainly ingredients in place that could make it a good cycle for Democrats in 2026.

But assumptions about the midterms and their consequences for 2028 become tricky in the volatile age of President Donald Trump, who has remade government, political discourse and media coverage in remarkable ways. Democrats, who are simultaneously looking to shake off their demoralizing defeat to Trump and are grappling with ideological, generational and tactical battles throughout the country, may be taking their 2026 prospects for granted.

“I think, both locally and nationally, we assume everybody’s going to be where they are, from the governor to all elected officials,” said former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker (D). “But we don’t really know how they’re going to wind up.”

At the dawn of this year’s MACo conference, it’s easy to see that county elections will be among the hardest-fought and most significant of the 2026 cycle.

Four of the state’s biggest counties will be electing new executives next year, and “each race will be brutal,” a leading state Democratic operative predicts. Several downballot elections in the counties – including internecine battles for state’s attorney, sheriff, county council seats and other offices – will be equally tempestuous.

“The greatest opportunity for political dynamism next year rests not with state elections or the General Assembly but with our county governments,” Foxwell said.

Known unknowns

Maryland’s 2026 primaries are on June 30. The candidate filing deadline is on Feb. 24.

Some key questions about the 2026 races remain unanswered:

– Will former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) try to get his old job back, setting up an epic battle with Moore? Hogan has been strafing Moore on social media, but has taken no overt steps to organize a campaign; strategists on both sides of the aisle believe he is almost certainly the GOP’s best hope next year.

“I think the governor will win,” Baker said of Moore. “I think he could win big. But he will definitely have vigorous opposition.”

– Will U.S. Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-5th), the longest-serving member of the House of Representatives in Maryland history, seek another term next year, when he will be 87 years old? Not even his closest friends seem to know – and several downballot races could be impacted if he chooses to call it a career, as ambitious pols scramble to succeed him.

Baker said Hoyer’s plans may hinge on whether he thinks Democrats can retake the majority in the U.S. House.

– Even more basically, will Maryland lawmakers seek to redraw the state’s congressional lines next year, as state House Majority Leader David Moon (D-Montgomery) has suggested, in retaliation for mid-decade redistricting efforts underway in Texas and other Republican-dominated legislatures?

“Does Maryland respond to Texas?” asked Mileah Kromer, a pollster and director of the University of Maryland, Baltimore County Institute for Politics. “That decision could have serious political ramifications.”

Moon plans to introduce legislation that would require Maryland lawmakers to consider a mid-decade remap of congressional boundaries if another state changes its map. But even Moon, in an interview, said it wasn’t clear if the bill would mandate action or produce new district lines before the 2026 election, or if Democratic leaders will choose that path.

“At a certain point, a lot of these decisions go above my pay grade,” he said.

Through a spokesperson, Moore told The Baltimore Sun last week that he would consider “all options” on redistricting.

Democrats already hold a 7-1 advantage in the state’s House delegation, so making U.S. Rep. Andy Harris (R-1st) vulnerable would require even more gerrymandering. He won reelection by 22 points last year, and Jake Day (D), Moore’s charismatic state secretary of Housing and Community Development, is pondering a challenge.

But the task of weakening Harris’ political position may not be impossible: Only the 6th congressional district, occupied by freshman Rep. April McClain Delaney (D), is remotely competitive. She won her seat last fall by a little over 5 points; the state’s other six Democrats won theirs by an average of 45 points, with victory margins ranging from 18 points (Rep. Johnny Olszewski Jr.) to 77 points (Rep. Glenn Ivey). Some of these members would have to sacrifice safe Democratic territory to put Harris’ seat in play.

And it’s worth pointing out that a court in 2022 rejected Maryland Democrats’ attempts to put Harris’ district in play as unconstitutional.

Democratic gerrymandering has also limited the number of competitive seats in the General Assembly. Can Republicans target more than a handful of Democratic-controlled seats next year? Do Democrats have any pick-up opportunities in GOP districts?

If there are any vulnerable state legislators in 2026, they may face more peril in their party primaries than in the general election. Democratic supermajorities in the state Senate and House of Delegates do not appear to be in any danger at this point.

A bigger and more basic question is whether the two parties in Maryland are even equipped to challenge for seats where the other side has long dominated.

Republicans have won three of the last six gubernatorial elections, but the state GOP is in thrall to Trump, who has an appeal in conservative pockets of Maryland but limits the party’s ability to compete statewide and in bigger jurisdictions. Republicans are unlikely to run a strong candidate for Howard County executive next year, even though the GOP held the job as recently as 2018; the same may be true in Baltimore County and Anne Arundel County, depending on Haire’s plans. Bigger Republican benches in conservative jurisdictions have yet to yield candidates who can compete at the statewide level or for many congressional seats.

Conservative Democratic elected officials have all but vanished in Maryland; they controlled the General Assembly just a generation ago. Democrats have seemingly impenetrable advantages in several large suburban counties that were swing areas just a few elections ago. But as Maryland Democrats become more liberal and more in sync with the national party, their ability to make gains in conservative parts of the state diminishes.

Partisan arguments and counter-arguments

Even with the conflicting political signals, smart minds in both parties in Maryland see reason for optimism this election cycle.

Moon, the House majority leader, said Trump’s assault on the federal government and programs resonate in every corner of Maryland, benefiting Democrats.

“It’s a midterm where the GOP has set out to destroy our state,” he said. “We’ve got a cannon aimed directly at our head – we’ve got to do our best to dodge it.”

Sophia Silbergeld, a Baltimore-based Democratic fundraiser and strategist, said state Democrats will prosper if they portray themselves as a bulwark against Trump policies.

“As long as Democrats' message strategically and paint themselves as an alternative to Trump, they will do well in Maryland in 2026,” she said. “State and local officials can message that they’re the last bastion against the Trump administration.”

But Jim Burton, a former executive director of the Maryland Republican Party, said tax and fee increases pushed through by Moore and legislative Democrats over the past two years could come back to haunt them electorally; he sees some of the same elements at play this cycle that propelled former Republican Govs. Larry Hogan and Bob Ehrlich to victory and almost elected Ellen Sauerbrey governor in 1994.

“We don’t know what the environment will look like in a year and a few months from now, but there are a lot of things on the table that could be a problem for Democrats,” said Burton, a pollster who advises GOP clients in Maryland and other states. “We could be looking at a period of history repeating itself. I like the situation that we’re in right now.”

Kromer acknowledged that voters will be driven by economic issues, but noted that the impact of the Trump administration’s policies on the state will also be top-of-mind to Democratic voters, making it difficult for Republican candidates to piece together a broad coalition, as Hogan did so deftly in 2014 and 2018.

“Like all voters, Democrats are driven by taxes and cost-of-living issues, but they’re particularly angry about Trump being back in the White House, and that anger will create a serious obstacle for Moore’s eventual challenger,” she said. “Just look at what happened in 2022.”

Foxwell said rising utility costs are a source of great outrage for voters and present a major challenge for Maryland political leaders in both parties.

“The one issue that keeps blinking as a big issue for me is the cost of energy, and it poses risks for Democrats and Republicans,” he said. “The proclivity of Annapolis lawmakers for blaming [grid operator] PJM is a losing strategy. People don’t know what PJM is, and they know they didn’t vote for PJM.”

Known knowns

One thing that is certain about the 2026 election in Maryland is that the open-seat races for county executive in Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Howard and Montgomery counties will be among the most intense of the cycle, especially in the Democratic primaries.

“The theater of combat in the counties this cycle is not going to be Republicans vs. Democrats, but establishment Democrats vs. insurgents,” Foxwell predicted.

Anne Arundel, considered a purple jurisdiction, is a paradox: Democrats have made significant and potentially durable gains in the last few elections, even as angry divides have erupted among party leaders and activists – especially since the death in 2019 of the late House Speaker Michael E. Busch (D), who had a robust political organization and was a unifying figure for county Democrats.

The Democratic race to replace term-limited County Executive Steuart Pittman (D) features County Councilmembers Alison Pickard and Pete Smith, and James Kitchin, a top aide to Pittman who has his boss’ support. Skirmishing among the candidates and their supporters seems inevitable. Even so, the Democrats are likely to hold the seat if Haire does not run – and might be favored, given the national dynamics of the political cycle, even if she does.

Haire, who lost to Pittman by 7 points in 2022, said she is still pondering her political options for 2026 but doesn’t think Anne Arundel voters will be swayed by the national political dynamic.

“We have an electorate that really pays attention, and local issues really matter to folks,” she said.

Baltimore County features a four-way Democratic primary to replace County Executive Kathy Klausmeier (D), who was appointed to complete the final two years of Olszewski’s tenure and isn’t expected to seek a full term of her own. The wide-open race features Councilmembers Julian Jones, Izzy Patoka and Pat Young, along with Nick Stewart, a businessman, attorney and former county school board member.

Republicans have yet to put up a candidate for the race, but intriguingly, former state Sen. Jim Brochin, a moderate who lost the 2018 Democratic primary to Olszewski by just 17 votes, has floated the possibility of running in the general election as an independent. He could be formidable, if he gets sufficient funding.

In Howard County, Del. Jessica Feldmark (D), who served as chief of staff to former County Executive Ken Ulman (D), is likely to rack up a substantial amount of establishment support as she looks to replace the outgoing executive, Calvin Ball (D). Councilmembers Deb Jung and Liz Walsh are also seeking the Democratic nomination, and the field could grow.

No Republican has come forward yet in Howard, and it’s hard to see a strong contender emerging. Allan Kittleman was the GOP nominee in the last three elections – winning once and losing twice.

In Montgomery County, County Executive Marc Elrich (D) is term limited, and three young Democratic council members are the leading candidates, so far, to replace him: Andrew Friedson (39), Evan Glass (48) and Will Jawando (42). The last Republican county executive was elected in 1974.

At least three of the open-seat candidates for county executive in the state – Feldmark, Pickard and Smith – have scheduled fundraisers in Ocean City this week to coincide with MACo. So has Frederick County Executive Jessica Fitzwater (D), who is seeking a second term.

As usual, Ocean City will be the center of the political universe for a few days this week. By the time next summer’s MACo conference takes place, the 2026 primaries will have come and gone – and the world could look a lot different.