Possible Subtropical Storm Could Bring Drenching Rain To MD: See Latest Track, Forecast

Updated at 11:55 a.m.

MARYLAND — Tropical storm and storm surge warnings have been issued for the mid-Atlantic coast, including Calvert and St. Marys counties, as a low pressure system off the coast of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas strengthens. Forecasters said life-threatening storm surge is possible in some areas.

As of 5 p.m. Thursday, the storm was about 680 miles south of Annapolis with 35 mph winds, moving north at 8 mph. The National Weather Service said he storm will pass near the mid-Atlantic coast Saturday through Sunday.

The main threat will be a storm surge with inundation around 2 to 3 feet most likely for locations along the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay, as well as the shore of the tidal Potomac River. The highest water levels will be around times of high tide Saturday through Saturday night.

Rainfall will most likely average between 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts around 3 to 5 inches possible. The best chance for the highest rainfall amounts will be near and east of Interstate 95. This may result in isolated instances of flooding, especially for low-lying and flood-prone areas. The heaviest rain is most likely to occur Saturday into Saturday night.

The National Weather Service said a tropical storm warning is in effect for the next 36 hours in these areas:

• Cape Fear, North Carolina, to Fenwick Island, Delaware
• Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point, Virginia
• Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A storm surge watch is in effect for:

• Surf City, North Carolina, to Chincoteague, Virginia
• Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point, Virginia
• Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. When a storm generates maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph it has reached tropical storm status.

A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the warning areas during the next 48 hours.

NWS forecasters said 1 to 3 feet of water above ground will be possible within surge-prone areas from Friday evening until Sunday morning.

The NWS said winds of 30-40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph will arrive at the Eastern Shore early Saturday and continue through the morning.

Possible effects could be:

• Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
• Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, especially if soils are saturated. Some roadway signs will sustain damage.
• A few roads will be impassable from debris. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
• Scattered power and communications outages.

The storm system could become a subtropical depression on Friday, with the chances growing that it will affect parts of Maryland with downpours and strong wind gusts.

"A coastal system is likely to impact the area over the weekend with a soaking rain, breezy winds, and tidal flooding all possible," the National Weather Service said Thursday.

Drenching rainfall will spread across a large area of the East Coast on Friday and into the weekend from the low pressure system that forecasters said could become the next named tropical storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

"That's a mix of a low associated with fronts, but also with some qualities of tropical storms. The National Hurricane Center issues advisories for these subtropical systems as they do for tropical depressions and storms," The Weather Channel said Thursday.

The next named storms in the Atlantic hurricane season will be named Ophelia and then Philippe.

The mixing of the low pressure system with the fronts is forecast to lead to strong, gusty winds, particularly at the beaches, in the Mid-Atlantic states from Friday into the weekend.

"These winds will also whip up some high surf, dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding," The Weather Channel said. "Coastal flooding could be moderate to locally major at high tide in the Virginia Tidewater region on Saturday. Minor to moderate coastal flooding could extend as far south as the Outer Banks of North Carolina to as far north as the Jersey Shore."

Even if the low pressure system does not become an organized tropical system, it will bring rain and gusty winds to the Mid-Atlantic, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys. "The storm is likely to bring gusty winds and rounds of heavy rain to much of the East Coast," he said.

Rain will likely first affect the Carolinas and parts of southeastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula on Friday.

The Capital Weather Gang said there are still questions about the details of the storm, "but rain appears most likely Friday night into Saturday, with confidence in soaking downpours increasing the farther east you go."

Rain showers could linger into the second half of the weekend and even potentially into early Monday, according to the Capital Weather Gang.

WJZ News reported that rain could arrive in southern Maryland by late Friday night. Winds also will begin to pick up Friday night, especially near Southern Chesapeake Bay, with gusts between 20 and 40 mph, according to WJZ.

"Model projections vary, but impacts on the Mid-Atlantic are expected, potentially including isolated flooding and gusty winds, especially near the Chesapeake Bay. Rainfall totals will range from 1 to 3 inches across the area from west to east with emphasis on the Eastern Shore," WJZ reported.

Here is a look at the National Weather Service forecast through the weekend in central Maryland:

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 73.

Friday night: A chance of showers, mainly after 3 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. East wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Saturday: Showers likely, mainly after 9 a.m. Cloudy, with a high near 63. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Saturday night: Showers likely, mainly before 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 58.

Sunday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 68.

Sunday night: A chance of showers before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 73.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Tuesday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 71.