Forecasters Eyeing Potential Tropical System That Could Affect MD

MARYLAND — In what is turning out to be a busy hurricane season, weather officials are watching multiple storm systems that could threaten the East Coast, including a tropical storm brewing in the Atlantic that's expected to target a stretch from northeastern Florida to North Carolina this week.

In a news release, Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather's chief on-air meteorologist, labeled one unnamed storm churning in the ocean "homebrew," saying stalled fronts could be a factor in creating homebrew-type storms.

AccuWeather said the low-pressure system could hit portions of the East Coast by the end of the week due to atmospheric energy and a stalled front.

"The Gulf Stream, which is a current that originates from the Caribbean, transports warm water along much of the East Coast. Water temperatures in this zone are currently well into the 80s and well above the minimum threshold needed for tropical development to take place," AccuWeather said in the release.

The National Hurricane Center said Tuesday morning that the non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form east of the Florida peninsula late this week. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics this weekend while it moves generally northward.

"Regardless of subtropical development, this low could bring gusty winds, heavy rain, and high surf conditions to portions of the coastal Carolinas into the coastal Mid-Atlantic states this weekend," the National Hurricane Center said.

Meanwhile, the Weather Channel on Monday said the storm has a low chance of becoming a depression or a named storm, and will likely become subtropical.

The East Coast could experience significant rain, wind and high surf conditions this week into the weekend, the Weather Channel said.

According to AccuWeather, heavy rainfall and thunderstorms could affect the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic coast Friday and Saturday.

The Capital Weather Gang said Tuesday morning that the weekend is a waiting game for the Baltimore and D.C. areas for now as models grapple with the storm system coming up the coast.

"Depending on the storm track, we could see periods of heavier rain, especially Saturday, or just mainly clouds and maybe a few showers. The rainier route would mean highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, versus mid- to upper 70s in the drier scenario," the Capital Weather Gang said.

NBC4 said this weekend "comes with a significant forecast challenge."

A cold front has stalled over South Florida. "Cold fronts sitting on top of really warm ocean water is a recipe for trouble at this time of the year," NBC4 said Tuesday morning.

The National Hurricane Center has a 30 percent chance that this could be a named storm (Ophelia) by Friday night or Saturday morning somewhere along the Carolina coastline, according to NBC4.

"The pattern favors that storm moving up the Mid-Atlantic coast and spreading rain into our area by Saturday morning. How much rain will depend on factors we don't know yet," NBC4 said. "The storm's proximity to the coast will inhibit its ability to turn into a hurricane… BUT! That's not totally out of the question AND even tropical storms can bring high impacts to our region."

Hurricane Nigel Churns In Atlantic

Also on the radar of weather forecasters is Hurricane Nigel, located in the central Atlantic. The hurricane should not threaten land and should move away from Bermuda this week, the Weather Channel said.

Nigel was spinning at about 80 mph Monday in the Atlantic and heading northwest at about 12 mph. While it's still early to say where Nigel would end up, the latest forecast model had the storm making a northeastern turn, avoiding landfall on the East Coast and heading toward northern Europe by Saturday morning.

Tropical Wave Forms Near Africa

A third storm, a tropical wave near the African coast, should leave the area by Wednesday, the National Weather Service said.

"Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic," the agency said.

By the end of the week or over the weekend, the tropical wave is expected to form into a tropical depression. Over the next seven days, it has a 70 percent chance of tropical formation, the weather service said.

With an ongoing hurricane season, the Weather Channel said the next 10 weeks should bring additional tropical storm systems.

Here is a look at the National Weather Service forecast for the rest of the week in central Maryland:

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 75.

Tuesday night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 78.

Wednesday night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 81.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 74.

Friday night: A chance of rain after 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Saturday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70.