New 2023-24 Winter Forecast Prediction For MD Released

MARYLAND — If new prediction models from the National Weather Service prove out, Maryland residents could see a warmer-than-average but slightly snowier winter.

A strengthening El Niño climate pattern influencing both temperature and precipitation is expected to continue through March, according to the National Weather Service, an agency of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The NWS's precipitation outlook depicts enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation amounts in the Mid-Atlantic states, including Maryland.

Forecaster Scott Handel said a major challenge in this winter’s forecast is managing the competing influences of El Niño and recent trends, especially in the southern U.S., where trends are leaning toward warmer weather and El Niño climate patterns typically favor cooler temperatures.

The temperature outlook for October-December favors above-normal temperatures in Alaska, the western third of the United States, the Northeast, the Great Lakes, parts of the Southern Plains, Florida and the East and Gulf coasts.

The greatest chances (60 percent) for above-normal temperatures are across Alaska’s north slope. The Pacific Northwest and northern New England have a greater than 50 percent probability of normal or above-normal temperatures.

At the same time, areas of the Southeast, Southern Plains and mid-Atlantic states, as well as northern and western Alaska, have a 50 percent probability of above-normal snow and precipitation. The greatest chances (above 50 percent) of above-normal precipitation are for parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia.

As the El Niño continues to gain strength through early spring, the southern U.S. is expected to see above-normal precipitation, while the northern U.S. and Great Lakes see below-normal precipitation.

At the same time, the Eastern Seaboard is expected to see above-normal precipitation during the core of winter. Uncertainty is high across the West Coast, which is trending warmer, contrary to typical El Niño patterns. But given the possibility of a strong El Niño, areas from southern California to Alaska’s North Slope could see above-normal precipitation as winter wears on.

Other long-range outlooks suggest cold, snowy weather this winter.

The Farmers’ Almanac suggests in its extended 2023-24 winter forecast that “the BRRR is back,” but also that snow shovels will see plenty of action. In Maryland, the Farmer's Almanac is predicting "frosty, flaky and slushy" conditions this winter.

The competing Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting plenty of snow and cold in its 2024 winter forecast. That outlook suggests the winter in Maryland will be cold and snowy.

Both of those forecasts were released in August.