Wednesday Weather: Forecasters Talk of Derecho Conditions in Cecil County

Perryville residents won't soon forget last year's derecho that struck the area June 29.

That late Friday night storm brought high winds and heavy rain. It caused tornadoes in Baltimore City, Baltimore County and St. Mary's County, with one more possible tornado under investigation in Howard County.

Now, some meteorologists are talking about a weather system that may have the potential to spawn another derecho, possibly late Wednesday or Thursday.

Fortunately, any power outages related to these coming storms may be easier to handle, as high temperatures are projected to be in the high 70s to low 80s over the next 10 days—not 100-plus degrees.

Of course, meteorologists don't always agree on weather forecasts.

Here's a breakdown of who's saying what:

Alex Sosnowski, senior meteorologist from AccuWeather: 

"Complexes of strong, drenching and locally severe thunderstorms will reach from parts of South Dakota and Nebraska to Illinois, Ohio, western Pennsylvania and the Virginias during the middle of this week.

Part of this area could be hit by an intense thunderstorm complex, known as a derecho."

Sosnowski, replying to comments about possible fear-mongering by uttering the word "derecho" in his forecast, said: "It is our duty to warn people of potential dangerous weather conditions. The weather pattern favors multiple MCSs (Mesoscale Convective System) spanning late Tuesday to Thursday afternoon. Of these there is a 'chance' one morphs into a derecho. Because forecasting the exact starting point of an MCS is difficult and exactly where the complexes will turn to the right of the flow, we can't say dead on which locations will be hit the hardest."

Larry Cosgrove, whose Twitter bio describes him as a meteorologist specializing in the prediction of extreme weather events, tweeted:

"Severe weather risk across much of Corn Belt, Mid-Atlantic region Tuesday night - Thursday. Derecho or MCS threat"

Foot's Forecast:

"The big question on everyone’s mind is if something like last year will happen again. Taking a look now, the heat wave this year is not as intense as last, but the positioning of that jet is similar ... Before the June 2012 derecho, there was an absurd amount of energy over the Mid-Atlantic with temperatures over 100º and extremely high humidity.

"That is not expected to occur again tomorrow or Thursday but that does not completely eliminate the chance. A derecho is absolutely not a guarantee with this kind of atmospheric set-up, but sometimes they can happen."

Greg Forbes, The Weather Channel forecast for Wednesday:

"Scattered severe thunderstorms, possibly in clusters or even a derecho (widespread damaging wind event associated with a bow echo thunderstorm pattern) in northeast IA, south WI, north half IL, north IN, south MI, OH, southwest PA, north and central WV, MD, DC, north VA."

Do you think meteorlogists are sounding the alarm too early, or do you like advance warning even if dire weather forecasts change for the better? Tell us in the comments. 

Tyler Waldman contributed to this report.