MoCo Updates Indicators To Guide Possible Phase Two Rollbacks

ROCKVILLE, MD — As COVID-19 cases continue to rise, Montgomery County has updated its indicators to determine whether to rollback its phase two reopening provisions.

Health officials said they will use 10 indicators to monitor the county's progress while they investigate a recent uptick in cases. The new indicators, which will be updated daily, are available on the county's COVID-19 website.

"We have been monitoring the uptick in cases to determine whether it was an anomaly, but the increase in cases has been consistent over the last few weeks," said County Health Officer Dr. Travis Gayles. "These updated indicators will enable the public to see the data we are evaluating as make difficult decisions. Our goal is to reduce the risk of transmission of COVID-19 and these indicators will help us monitor the risk of transmission in the county."

The primary indicators that the county will be analyzing are:

• Daily case rate (seven-day average per 100,000 people)
• Test positivity rate or percentage (during the last 14 days)
• Rate of transmission

Secondary indicators to be evaluated include:

• Percentage of change in new cases per 100,000 people (during the last seven days compared with the previous seven days)
• Percentage of hospital inpatient beds that are occupied
• Percentage of intensive care unit beds occupied
• Percentage of hospital beds occupied by COVID-19 patients
• Positive cases with contact tracking attempts
• Positive cases that have been interviewed
• Close contacts to positive cases where contact has been attempted

The county, which is currently in phase two of its pandemic recovery plan, has typically reopened at a slower rate than the rest of the state due to higher COVID-19 numbers. Health officials say the county will not enter phase three until they see low and medium transmission levels — or 10 to 35 cases a day. Over the last three months, daily COVID-19 cases have hovered between 47 and 171.

As of Monday, the number of cases per 100,000 residents was 11.1, according to the county's COVID-19 website. Ten is the threshold at which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) considers a region to be at high risk for coronavirus transmission.

If the upticks persist, Gayles said the county will likely tighten restrictions on social gathering sizes and indoor capacity limits at restaurants, retail, and houses of worship.

"From the beginning of this pandemic, we made it clear that we would rely on science and data to guide our decisions," said County Executive Marc Elrich. "I don't want to see us have to rollback any of the activities that we have reopened over the last three or four months."