A Redistricting CliffsNotes of Sorts

Yesterday we got a expected to be discussed this afternoon by Baltimore County's first Redistricting Commission.

A map is not yet available but I thought I'd try to summarize changes here in a different way.

It's important to remember a couple of key things.

First, the target population for the new districts being created by the commission is 115,293 (county population of 807,053 divided by 7 districts = 115,293).

Second, that does not mean the commission has to create districts of exactly the same number of people. The courts allow for some deviation—about 5 percent over or under the target number. That means any council district with a population between 109,528 and 121,058 will satisfy that test.

Third, none of the proposed changes are official. The commission must formally approve them and send them to the council. The council must hold a public hearing on them and then approve any changes (the commission's or the council's) in legislation. Council members would run in their new districts in the 2014 election.

The commission meets at 3 p.m. today in the council work session conference room on the second floor of the Old Courthouse.

District 1

The district made up primarily of the Arbutus and Catonsville areas appears to change only slightly, picking up the Woodlawn High School precinct from Councilman Ken Oliver's 4th District.

The change adds about 6,300 people to the district. Of that, nearly 3,700 are registered voters. The proposed change makes the district more Democrat and increases the percentage of minority voters to about 30 percent. That's the second highest concentration of minority voters and could pave the way to a second majority-minority district in as soon as 10 years if certain trends continue.

Democratic Councilman Tom Quirk, the freshman who represents the 1st District, welcomes the change, saying it will make his district more diverse (not to mention tougher for a Republican to win). Oliver, for his part, said he and Quirk are still haggling over possible changes.

Oliver favors transferring the Featherbed Lane Elementary Precinct, which has nearly one-third fewer registered voters.

District 2

The district is currently represented by freshman Democrat Vicki Almond and includes Pikesville and parts of Owings Mills, Reisterstown, Ruxton and Mays Chapel.

Under the proposed changes, Almond would trade precincts in Mays Chapel to Councilman Todd Huff, the 3rd District Republican. In return, the 2nd District would pick up northern Reisterstown area precincts that sit along the southwest border of Huff's District.

The proposed changes would add about 1,900 people to the district but would rejoin most of the Reisterstown area under one council district.

District 3

Some of the biggest changes come in the mostly rural, mostly Republican district represented by Huff, a freshman Republican.

The district is the largest in terms of geography stretching down from the Pennsylvania line and touching both the Carroll and Harford County borders.

Huff gives up the aforementioned Reisterstown precincts in favor of the Mays Chapel precincts along the York Road corridor in Timonium.

Huff also gives up the Kingsville Elementary precinct to fellow freshman Republican David Marks.

Huff said the proposed change for the Kingsville area makes sense but it should be noted that the precinct in question voted almost 3-1 for Huff. The net result of the changes decrease district population by about 3,000 people and could make the district, once considered a safe Republican seat, more favorable to a electing a Democrat—something Huff acknowledges.

District 4

The county's first and only majority-minority district will likely change very little outside the expected shift of at least one precinct into the 1st District (see above).

Oliver, in his third term, is the only councilman to represent the district since it was created. he is also the second most senior council member.

The district, which includes Woodlawn and Randallstown and portions of Owings Mills and Reisterstown, grew by about 1,600 people since it was created in 2001—the third largest population growth in the county in the last decade.

The proposed change to move the Woodlawn High School precinct into the 1st District would reduce the population in the district by about 6,000 people. The district, as proposed, would have the highest concentration of minority voters of any in the county—about 80 percent.

District 5

Councilman David Marks, a Perry Hall Republican, says he's very happy with the proposed changes for his district. And he should be. The net effect reunites Perry Hall in his district.

The district also becomes slightly more hospitable to a Republican as it picks up a favorable GOP precinct while shedding several heavily Democratic precincts.

Under the proposal, the 5th would add the Kingsville Elementary precinct (see the 3rd District summary). About 70 percent of the precinct voted for Huff in 2010. Marks said he believes his name recognition in the area is high.

The district picked up about 7,000 people in the last year—not surprising for an area that includes one of two county-designated growth areas in Perry Hall.

Marks also gives up nearly a half-dozen precincts between the Beltway and the city line in the Hillendale and Loch Raven area, which are heavily Democratic. Marks won in 2010 despite those precincts but the Hillendale area has killed Republican efforts to win the district—ask former Del. Jim Ports about the 2002 election in which that precinct made it impossible for him to defeat then-Councilman Vince Gardina.

Marks' district would continue to stretch into Towson via a turkey neck strip of precincts along Joppa Road including the Oakleigh neighborhood and the Pleasant Plains precinct in Loch Raven Village, which would favor the Republican Marks.

The neighborhoods of Towson still are divided into three districts (the 2nd and 3rd inlcuded) but the downtown core remains in the 5th.

The proposed map keeps Mike Ertel and Bill Paulshock, two strong Democratic contenders from Towson and Perry Hall/Kingsville respectively, in the district and adds Democratic former Councilman Joseph Bartenfelder into the mix.

On the community side, the Harford Road corridor area stretching from the city line to Cub Hill would still be represented by three council members—much to the chagrin of community leaders like Ruth Baisden.

However, the Carney area would be represented by two council members instead of three, according to Marks.

District 6

If Marks' district gets more Republican, freshman Democratic Councilwoman Cathy Bevins' 6th District gets more Democrat by virtue of the precincts she picks up from the 5th District.

Bevins gives up precincts on the Back River Neck peninsula to four-term incumbent Democrat John Olszewski Sr. but gains two precincts that run parallel to northern side of Pulaski Highway at the city line. Olszewski did well in both of those precincts—that's good news for Bevins whose council district shares many similar precincts with the 7th Legislative Distrct, arguably the county's most Republican General Assembly District.

Bevins also waves good-bye to the precinct where her predecessor Joseph Bartenfelder lives. The former four-term councilman gave up his seat for an unsuccessful bid for county executive. Surely Bevins has heard the rumors that Bartenfelder is eyeing a return to elected politics in 2014 and a run for council might be on his list of possible campaigns.

Bevins would represent much of the Parkville area but that might be seen as half a loaf to some activists who say the neighborhoods and businesses along the Harford Road corridor are communities of interest not well served by having three council members.

Bevins' district grew by nearly 6,100 people since it was drawn in 2001. That's the second most behind the 5th District.

The proposed changes would reduce the population by less than 2,000 people but would leave Bevins representing the largest council district by population.

District 7

Olszewski's district, as drawn, finished the decade as the second smallest district by population behind only Quirk's 1st District.

If the commission's proposed changes are adopted, the 7th District will add nearly 8,000 people and become the third most populous behind the 6th and 5th Districts, respectively.

Olszewski would represent all of the Back River Neck peninsula while giving up some precincts to Bevins, his neighbor and fellow Democrat.

Keep up with what's happening in Baltimore County politics by following Bryan P. Sears on Twitter and Facebook.