MA Winter Snow Outlook For 2023-24 Winter: NOAA Predictions

MASSACHUSETTS — An El Niño climate pattern might mean a snowier winter for Massachusetts compared to the relatively mild 2022-23 season, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said in an updated U.S. Winter Outlook released Thursday.

The United States hasn’t had an El Niño winter in four years. The new winter outlook shows up to a 40 percent change of a winter with higher-than-normal precipitation for the section of the state from the North Shore southwest to Springfield and out to the end of the Cape.

At the same time, the weather service is predicting a warmer-than-normal winter in New England, with up to a 50 percent chance of above-average temperatures.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists expect wetter-than-average conditions to prevail in Alaska, portions of the West, the Southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic from December through February. At the same time, it’ll be drier than average across the country’s northern tier, especially in the northern Rockies and High Plains and near the Great Lakes.

“An enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often present during strong El Niño events supports high odds for above-average precipitation for the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast states this winter,” Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center, said in a news release.

So what's normal for Massachusetts? The average snowfall should be around 50 inches in a given winter, according to weather records. The Boston area only saw about 11-1/2 inches last winter, one of the least snowy winters on record.

According to AccuWeather's 2023-24 winter outlook, a strong El Niño could bring multiple nor'easters to the state in January and February, dumping more than triple the amount of snow the state law over the relatively weak 2022-23 winter.

"The window for snow-producing nor'easters will open in late January through February which could dish out hefty snowfall amounts to Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and beyond," AccuWeather predicted earlier in October.