Triple The Snow For MA? New Winter Outlook Says El Niño Will Hit Hard

MASSACHUSETTS — Massachusetts could be in for a pretty severe winter due to a strong El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean, according to a new long-range forecast.

According to AccuWeather's 2023-24 winter outlook, a strong El Niño could bring multiple nor'easters to the state in January and February, dumping more than triple the amount of snow the state law over the relatively weak 2022-23 winter.

"The window for snow-producing nor'easters will open in late January through February which could dish out hefty snowfall amounts to Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and beyond," AccuWeather predicted.

The forecasting service said the Boston area could see more than 40 inches of snow this winter compared to the scant 12.4 inches measured last winter.

During El Niño winters, warm water moves closer to the west coast of South America, pushing the Pacific jet stream farther north. That trend allows moist air to enter the Southeast bringing heavy rain. When those storms move into the colder climate in the Northeast, the rain can turn to snow.

The three previous New England winters have all been influenced by La Niña, or colder water near the west coast of South America. La Niña winters in New England can be cold and less snowy due to drier air dipping down from the Arctic.

A strong El Niño could also bring colder air to New England — bad news for people struggling to pay increasing utility rates.

The AccuWeather prediction differs from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, which as of this week was forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures in December, January and February. Those three months could have more precipitation than normal, according to the weather service, but only in southern Connecticut and Rhode Island and the southeastern part of Massachusetts, including Cape Cod.