Will Tropical Storm Drench MA? Weekend Outlook Uncertain

MASSACHUSETTS — You'll want to pay attention to forecasts over the next 24 hours if you have outdoor plans this weekend.

A tropical system moving up the Atlantic Coast has the potential to soak southern New England on Saturday and Sunday — but there's still a lot of uncertainty how far into the region the storm will reach.

"On Saturday, low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will move to just off the New Jersey coast by Sunday and eastward out over the western Atlantic by Monday. The system will stream moisture into the Northeast coast, producing an area of heavy rain over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic coast into the southern New England Coast on Saturday," the National Weather Service said in a regional forecast.

But the NWS office in Norton was a little less sure about what the storm will mean for Massachusetts. A Thursday morning forecast predicted rain all day Saturday, but also said the heaviest rain threat could be contained to just southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod.

"For now, the highest probability for heavy rain is across southeast MA from the initial/lead wave Saturday, then possibly more of a widespread rain with subtropical low Sunday," the forecast said.

According to AccuWeather, the system has the potential to become a named tropical storm, an indication of its severity.

"There will be a short window in which the storm can intensify into an organized tropical system, most likely from Friday into early Saturday," AccuWeather said. "There is plenty of warm water in this area of the Atlantic Ocean, making a tropical depression or tropical storm within reach. However, disruptive wind shear, or changing winds with altitude, may prove to be too much for the storm to overcome."

As of Thursday morning, forecasts showed a 40 percent chance of rain for areas around Worcester and Boston, but a higher 60 to 70 percent chance on Cape Cod, according to NWS.