MA On Track For Over 10K Virus Deaths By December: Model

BOSTON — New estimates on the coronavirus pandemic's impact on Massachusetts predict over 10,000 deaths by Dec. 1. The projections come as the state pumps the brakes on its reopening plans and adds new restrictions to slow the increase of coronavirus cases.

New projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released Thursday estimate the state's death toll from the virus will reach 10,314 by Dec. 1 — an increase of 1,826 deaths.

As of Friday, Massachusetts has 111,853 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and a total of 8,488 deaths. The IHME analysis, which is funded partly by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, took note of whether and when they issued stay-at-home orders, closed schools, closed other non-essential services and imposed travel bans. The model also found that if universal masking was used in Massachusetts, 921 lives would be saved by December.

Stricter regulations and enforcement are already coming down the pipe in Massachusetts. Governor Charlie Baker announced on Friday the state would slow it's phased reopening plan and implement enforcement protocol. The next part of phase three of the state's reopening was indefinitely postponed, limits on outdoor gatherings will be cut in half, police are authorized to enforce public health orders and restaurants can only sell alcohol along with food.

The model showed that the number of daily, estimated infections could differ by the thousands based on whether universal masking procedures are followed. By Dec. 1 the number of estimated infections each day is projected to hit 7,869 in Massachusetts — that number drops to 1,269 with universal masking.

The coronavirus has killed more than 160,000 Americans as of Friday. Researchers say they expect 140,000 more to die from the coronavirus through Dec. 1. But there are ways to prevent some of the infections and deaths, IHME says in its summary, and one of the biggest factors that can start now, is mask wearing.

In Baker's Friday announcement, he gave State and local police authority to enforce municipal orders, which were previously enforced by local health officials. Towns that have official mask orders can now call on police to enforce them.

IHME researchers' updated predictions indicate America's COVID-19 death toll is expected to reach nearly 300,000 by Dec. 1. But if 95 percent of the county's population practiced consistent mask-wearing, about 70,000 lives could be saved, according to the institute's data.

You can view the IHME's full analysis here.