Massachusetts Easing Lockdown Despite High Positive Test Rate

MASSACHUSETTS — While a key measure of the state's efforts to control the spread of the coronavirus continues to improve, it's still well above the level health experts say officials can begin lifting social distancing restrictions with confidence.

The New York Times reported this week that positive test result rates need to stay below 5 percent for two weeks or longer and, preferably, be closer to 2 percent, for states to safely ease up social distancing restrictions. Only then can people feel confident the state has adequate testing in place to keep the coronavirus in check.

As of Wednesday, the average positive test rate in Massachusetts was 15 percent, down from 15.95 percent on June 3 but still well above the 5 percent threshold. Only a handful of small rural communities are below the 5 percent level (see map below).

While the state’s daily testing rate has been below five percent in recent weeks, health officials caution that there can be wide fluctuations and that the rate should be measured over a longer period of time than the daily measure offers.

You can view weekly testing data for your town since May 27 in a spreadsheet Patch compiled from Department of Public Health data.

Related Story: Town-By-Town Coronavirus Case Counts For Massachusetts As Of June 10

Even when the cumulative number goes below 5 percent, it "doesn’t mean you have total freedom," Erin Bromage, a comparative immunologist and biology professor at the University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth, told The Times. "It means there’s enough testing going on there that you can feel confident that your interactions in society are going to be of much lower risk."

And in Massachusetts, testing is still only a rough indicator of how far the virus has spread. As of Wednesday, Massachusetts was one of 22 states and territories that had yet to meet World Health Organization recommended testing criteria, according to Johns Hopkins University.

What Does All This Mean?

More than any other measure, the positive test rates give health officials a sense of how efforts to get the coronavirus under control are going. It also will be an early indicator of a resurgence if positive test results start to increase.

The good news is that the numbers are heading in the right direction across Massachusetts. But the state is reopening restaurants, stores and other public areas when it still doesn't have a firm grasp on the coronavirus. That means you need to weigh risks before heading out and, if you do go out, you need to be smart.

You will need to take precautions like wearing face coverings and frequent hand washing for the foreseeable future, but falling positive test rates generally mean it's safer to resume some activities you put on hold before the coronavirus crisis started in March.

Even after your town's and the state average go below the 5 percent threshold for two weeks, you should continue to take precautions and monitor the average positive test rates, which Patch updates every Wednesday afternoon. If you see the positive test rates go up, you should step up precautions.

What's The Positive Test Rate In My Town?

The map below shows the Massachusetts communities that had positive test rates under 5 percent for at least two weeks as of Wednesday. You can click on a pin to see that town's positive test rates since May 27, when the state Department of Public Health began releasing town-by-town testing data:

Testing data, infection rates and other information for every Massachusetts town is available in a spreadsheet that Patch updates every Wednesday afternoon.

Dave Copeland writes for Patch and can be reached at dave.copeland@patch.com or by calling 617-433-7851. Follow him on Twitter (@CopeWrites) and Facebook (/copewrites).