Here Are The Patriots' Odds To Beat The Chargers In AFC Wild Card Game

FOXBOROUGH, MA — The number two seed AFC East champion New England Patriots will host their first home playoff game in six years Sunday night as they welcome the seventh seed Los Angeles Chargers to Gillette Stadium for an AFC Wild Card playoff game on Sunday, Jan. 11.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the 14-3 Patriots are 3.5 point favorites over the 11-6 Chargers. Traditionally, home teams are usually handicapped three points in matchups that are not considered one-sided toward one team. Since the expanded playoff format began in 2021, the two against seven seed matchups have heavily favored the former with a dominant 9-1 record. The sole victory came back in 2023 when the Green Bay Packers won handily against the Dallas Cowboys.

New England and Los Angeles did not play each other this regular season, and the Bolts are arguably better than a lot of teams the Pats squared off against in what ended up being a historically easy schedule in terms of opponent win percentage. The 2024 iterations of the squads played in Gillette in December 2024, where the Chargers trounced New England 40-7. However, there may not be anything to take away from that game going into this one, as the Patriots have made such great strides in the last 13 months they barely resemble the 4-13 team from last year. Quarterback Drake Maye has made an astronomical leap from promising rookie to elite MVP finalist. Head Coach Mike Vrabel has turned the Patriots into one of the best-coached and most well-disciplined teams in the NFL as opposed to his struggling predecessor Jerod Mayo. In addition, roster additions via free agency and the draft have greatly improved the roster.

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To go further back than just one year, New England has dominated the Chargers in the playoff historically. Whether the team was based in Los Angeles or San Diego, it did not matter. In 2006, Quarterback Tom Brady led an undermanned team into the former Qualcomm Stadium where they pulled off an upset over the heavily favored Chargers in the divisional round. The next year, the script was flipped as the squads met in Gillette for the 2007 AFC Championship. The Pats were the favorite in this game, as they were 17-0 on the season coming in. Chargers Quarterback Philip Rivers played the entire contest with a torn ACL, and all-pro running back LaDainian Tomlinson missed all but one serious with a knee injury. Brady, who was the MVP that season throwing for a record 50 touchdown passes, struggled but did just enough to send the Patriots to their fourth Super Bowl in six years.
Brady and Rivers would meet in the postseason one more time in the 2018 AFC Divisional Round game that many saw as even. However, New England leaned on home-field advantage, experience, and three touchdowns from running back Sony Michel to propel them to another dominant victory.

This time around, the Patriots will be looking to take advantage of a Chargers offense that has a myriad of injuries. Starting offensive tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater have been out for almost the entirety of the season, and in turn have struggled to keep Herbert upright. All those hits have culminated in a left-hand injury for Herbert that he himself is still dealing with. The Patriots pass rush got a much-needed boost back last week with the return of defensive tackle Milton Williams, and will look to win that position battle on Sunday night.

One “strength vs. strength” matchup to watch is the Patriots passing offense against the Chargers pass defense. The Pats aired it out a lot this season behind Maye, ending up with the fourth most passing yards per game at 250. Meanwhile, the Chargers secondary led by safety Derwin James finished with the fifth best pass defense in football, allowing only 179 yards per game.

Herbert will be looking to avenge two ugly playoff losses in previous years, which include a 27-point blown lead in 2022 against the Jacksonville Jaguars and a four interception performance against the Houston Texans just last year. Meanwhile, Maye is looking to keep his personal momentum from the regular season going and start his playoff career 1-0.

“We started at the beginning of the season listing things we want to do here and goals we want to accomplish, and we got our chance and opportunity right here,” Mayes said in a press conference this week. “I’m excited to get an opportunity to play home playoff games.”

How To Watch The Game

Kickoff: 8 p.m.

Network: NBC

Radio: 98.5 The Sports Hub