La Niña Has Arrived In MI: What Forecasters Are Saying It Means

A new long-range winter forecast predicts Michigan will have a stormy winter.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, all of Michigan will see above-average precipitation from December through February.

And that's thanks to a weaker La Niña, which the weather agency says has now formed.

La Niña is a recurring pattern of weather that typically arrives every three to five years. It develops when winds in the Pacific increase, pushing warm surface water to the west and causing cold, deep water to rise to the surface. The changing surface temperatures of the ocean have a ripple effect on atmospheric conditions and weather around the world.

The latest NOAA maps show southeastern Michigan will see 40 to 50 percent more precipitation than normal while areas in the northern parts of the state will see 33 to 40 percent higher amounts during that timeframe. Forecasters also expect a wide range of snow totals, along with lake effect snow.

Michigan should see average temperatures across the state from December through February, except for areas in the western Upper Peninsula where colder air from the Great Plains could slide eastward, according to the forecast.

If temperatures remain near normal with an active storm track, then Michigan will likely see several winter storms consisting of snow, freezing rain and sleet. In other words, a typical Michigan winter.

In their Oct. 9 advisory, NOAA said La Niña conditions are favored to persist through February 2026 before transitioning to neutral conditions between the January-March timeframe.

These conditions often impact where cold air, snow and rain are likely to occur in the U.S.

When La Niña conditions are present, they must persist for five consecutive three-month periods for La Niña to be official, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said.

Though La Niña is predicted to continue through early winter and affect snow, rain, and temperature trends across the country, Pastelok echoed NOAA's opinion that this year's La Niña appears to be weak.

"These waters off the West Coast and extending farther out are very, very important going into our [winter] forecast this year," Pastelok said.

Once La Niña conditions phase out, NOAA said the weather is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral in January-March, which occurs when Pacific sea surface temperatures are close to average.

La Niña is the counterpart to El Niño, which occurs when there are above-average sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.