La Niña Winter Likely: Here's What It Means For MI

After a hot summer, Michiganders may be wondering about the upcoming winter. Will it be cold and rainy or mild and dry, plunging us further into drought?

Well, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued a La Niña Watch for the fall and winter of 2025-26, meaning there is at least a 50 percent chance of a weak La Niña developing later this year.

La Niña is a climate phenomenon that occurs when the central and eastern Pacific Ocean cools down more than usual. It typically causes the northern United States to be cold and wetter than usual, and the southern states to be warmer and drier than usual.

Michigan Impacts

The agency's map shows that most of lower Michigan has a 33-40 percent chance of seeing above-average precipitation from December through February. Northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula have equal chances of seeing normal amounts, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's map.

The agency is more certain Michigan will see average temperatures this winter. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's map shows the entire state has an equal chance of seeing average temperatures from December through February.

Nationwide

Much of the southern U.S., stretching from California’s Central Coast to Florida and up the entire East Coast, will likely see above-average temperatures this winter. Only Washington state and southeast Alaska will see below-average temperatures, while the Midwest should be normal, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's map.

Areas along the southern U.S., stretching from southern California to across Texas and a U-shape to the Washington D.C. area, will likely see below-average precipitation this winter. Pockets of the Midwest, including Michigan, and parts of the Mountain West will see more precipitation. The rest of the country remains uncertain, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's map.

On that note, much of this forecast remains relatively uncertain. “Nothing is guaranteed in this business,” said Michelle L’Heureux, scientist at the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA updates its long-range outlooks monthly, and the next forecast is scheduled for Sept. 19. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center website. See here for predictions through November 2026.

Related:

• 'Pockets Of Wild': New Winter Snowfall Predictions Released For MI