Michigan 1 Of Only 3 ‘Low Risk’ States For Coronavirus

By Laina G. Stebbins, Michigan Advance

Michigan has now effectively “flattened the curve” enough to be categorized as having a “low risk” level for COVID-19, according to one of the models used by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s team to evaluate the state’s response to the virus.

COVID Act Now is also known as the most aggressive, or pessimistic, data model. Since early May, the indicators for Michigan had shown a “moderate risk” for reopening — a change from “high risk” in the months before then.

Now, COVID Act Now metrics show that Michigan is on track to contain COVID-19, as evidenced by steadily declining cases and good preparedness by the state. The model moved Michigan to green on the warning dashboard Tuesday afternoon.

Michigan has an estimated infection rate of 0.82 and a positive test rate of 1.2%, meaning that overall cases are decreasing and there is widespread testing for COVID-19. The state’s percentage of ICU headroom used is low, while the percentage of contacts traced is high, both of which are positive indicators.

Currently, New York and New Jersey are the only other states to share Michigan’s designation of “low risk.” All three states were initially hit hard by coronavirus.

Whitmer addressed the new metrics at her Wednesday press briefing on the state’s COVID-19 response.

“The data shows that before the public health measures were in place, the average Michigander spread the virus to three other people,” Whitmer said. “As measures were implemented and adherence grew, Michigan’s infection rate decreased to 2.5 people, and then 1.25 people, and then 0.8.

“… Without intervention Michigan might have experienced 28,000 more positive cases before June 1,” Whitmer said.

Whitmer said that although this is undeniably good news, Michiganders will still need to “stay vigilant” and take precautions like mask-wearing and social distancing for as long as there is no cure or vaccine for COVID-19.

“We have seen what’s happened when people don’t take this seriously, we see exponential growth happening again,” Whitmer said.

Republicans and some business leaders have criticized her emergency measures to stop the spread of COVID-19 and called for a quicker reopening. There are currently several efforts to recall Whitmer and revoke her emergency powers. However polling has consistently shown a majority of Michiganders back Whitmer’s handling of the pandemic.

Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan on Wednesday said Michigan is a “national leader” in containing the virus and said what Whitmer did for the state is “remarkable.”

The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) reported Wednesday that 60,393 Michiganders have tested positive for COVID-19 and 5,792 have died from the virus — an additional 204 cases and two deaths since Tuesday.

The virus has been detected in all but one of Michigan’s 83 counties.

The first two cases of COVID-19 were reported in the state on March 10. Whitmer declared a state of emergency that day.

Johns Hopkins University reports that there are more than 8.2 million confirmed cases worldwide and 444,853 deaths. In the United States, there are more than 2.1 million confirmed cases and 117,033 deaths.