UW Model: 3k Could Die In Michigan Even With Strict Social Distancing

A new statistical model projects just over 3,000 COVID-19 related deaths will occur in Michigan if the state’s ongoing stay at home order is closely followed.

The model — taken from a study by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) — estimates a Michigan death toll of 3,007 by August if extensive social distancing remains in place. That’s less dire than forecasts from last week.

IHME’s projection of a death toll is smaller than that from COVID Act Now, the model state officials are using, in part, to project state COVID-19 cases and fatalities. In its March 27 update, COVID Act Now estimated about 13,000 Michigan deaths if Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s March 24 stay at home order is strictly maintained.

The COVID Act Now update also shows Michigan could have been looking at 201,000 deaths, with hospitals overloaded by April 7, if no social distancing action had been taken at all.

At a press conference last week, Whitmer said taking no action could have resulted in up to 1 million hospitalizations and 460,000 deaths, based on state projections calculated, in part, by using COVID Act Now’s estimates, plus additional preliminary data from the University of Michigan and the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team.

That data helped inform her decision to issue the order starting March 24. It’s set to expire on April 13, but Whitmer told WWMT-TV Tuesday it’s unlikely that her orders will expire that day.

“Unless we have a miraculous turn of events, probably not,” she said.

It’s crucial to note that as the pandemic rapidly evolves, so do these data projections on the number of U.S. COVID-19 cases and deaths.

A number of factors — such as how seriously social distancing is taken by residents and how much medical equipment stays available — will affect the actual number of future hospitalizations and subsequent deaths.

The IHME model suggests peak demand for COVID-19 medical equipment and supplies will occur on April 10 in Michigan. The model projects a shortage of 4,407 hospital beds and 1,506 intensive care unit (ICU) beds by that date. Possible shortages of ventilators weren’t able to be calculated for the model.

The IHME study also predicts the rest of the U.S. will experience peak excess demand for total hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators during the second week of April.

Demand for medical equipment varies by state. The IHME study finds demand for regular hospital beds is high in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Michigan. These states — plus Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, Vermont and Massachusetts — also are in danger of running short of ICU bed spaces.

According to the study, peak excess demand in the United States is:

• 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds
• 17,380 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,955) ICU beds
• 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674) ventilators

It estimates 81,114 (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) U.S. deaths due to COVID-19 will occur over the next 4 months. Deaths are estimated to drop below 10 per day between May 31 and June 6, per the study

The “UI” abbreviation stands for the uncertainty interval, which shows there is some variability to where actual figures will fall in the numerical ranges listed above. The study notes the range of numbers is wide because the pandemic’s exact peak timing is unpredictable and changes by the day.

To develop the model and accompanying study, IHME pulled in COVID-19 confirmed case numbers from World Health Organization (WHO) websites, took reports from local and national governments and factored in hospital capacities. Data were also taken from select locations around the country to develop a model to forecast deaths.

Michigan had 7,615 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 259 deaths as of Tuesday afternoon, according to the state. Only New York, New Jersey and California have reported more cases, according to New York Times tracking

As of this writing, the United States has the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world. There are more than 173,000 cases and almost 3,500 deaths.

On Monday, Dr. Deborah Brix, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, said 100,000 to 200,000 American deaths was a best-case scenario. Projections could range from 1.6 million to 2.2 million in a worst-case scenario if the country did “nothing” to contain the outbreak, she said.

This story was originally published by the Michigan Advance. For more stories from the Michigan Advance, visit MichiganAdvance.com.