Polar Vortex Is Strengthening: What It Means For MN Winter Temps, Snow

TWIN CITIES, MN — While much of the country is expected to experience a milder-than-normal winter, Minnesota is shaping up as one of the few regions where colder-than-average conditions are likely to persist into early 2026, according to a new winter forecast.

That colder outlook for Minnesota comes even as temperatures trend warmer across large portions of the U.S., including parts of the South and East, where above-average warmth is expected to carry into the early months of the new year as the stratospheric polar vortex strengthens, according to The Weather Channel.

It may sound counterintuitive, but the stronger a polar vortex is, the less impactful it is, The Weather Channel said.

A stratospheric polar vortex, which is higher up in the atmosphere and usually stable, differs from the better-known tropospheric polar vortex, which is lower in the atmosphere and typically responsible for severe cold snaps in mid-latitude states.

Without a disrupted polar vortex, winter weather across the U.S. is expected to resemble a La Niña pattern, with warmer-than-average temperatures across the southern half of the country and cooler conditions holding on in the north.

While warmer weather is expected to dominate much of the country, Minnesota and parts of the Upper Midwest stand out as areas more likely to see sustained periods of below-average temperatures at times this winter.

The ongoing flip to cooler, wetter weather in the North and Northwest is also expected to continue, the forecast said, though bouts of colder and wetter weather elsewhere in the country remain possible.

The private weather service’s January to March outlook for Minnesota calls for:

• January: Below-average temperatures
• February: Below-average temperatures
• March: Below-average temperatures

Highlights of The Weather Channel’s outlook include:

• January will likely continue the late-December pattern with above-average warmth across the southern two-thirds of the country.
• February could see the warmest weather relative to average along the East Coast.
• Without the polar vortex in play, conditions are expected to resemble La Niña: warmer than average in the south and cooler in the north.
• The northern U.S. will likely see wetter-than-average conditions, while the southern U.S. is more likely to be drier.