Gross Air, Fire Danger, Storm Risk All In Twin Cities Forecast

TWIN CITIES, MN — Dangerous weather conditions are converging Tuesday across the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota: unhealthy air, elevated wildfire danger, and then a chance of isolated thunderstorms, according to the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and the National Weather Service.

Air Quality Alert

The MPCA has issued an Air Quality Alert for the metro area as ozone pollution reaches levels that are unhealthy for sensitive groups, especially children, seniors, and people with asthma. The Air Quality Index is forecast to hit 105 (Orange) in the Twin Cities, with particle pollution at moderate levels.

Elevated Fire Risk

While a Red Flag Warning covers much of central and southwestern Minnesota, a Special Weather Statement has been issued for the Twin Cities metro and southeastern Minnesota, including counties such as Hennepin, Ramsey, Dakota, and Washington.

Here’s what’s contributing to the risk:

• Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
• Relative humidity as low as 25–30 percent
• Southerly winds gusting up to 20 mph
• Extremely dry fuels across the region

Officials warn that even small sparks could quickly lead to fast-spreading wildfires. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged, and residents should check with the Minnesota DNR or local authorities before lighting any fires.

Isolated Storms Possible

• Tuesday afternoon: A few pop-up thunderstorms are possible
• Wednesday: Isolated storms return
• Thursday evening: A more organized system could bring widespread and possibly severe thunderstorms

What’s Next

A shift in the weather later this week is expected to bring cooler temperatures, cloud cover, and rain, which should ease air quality concerns and reduce fire danger. However, forecasters say smoke from Canadian wildfires could drift into Minnesota late Thursday into Friday, depending on wind direction.

Safety Tips:

• Avoid any outdoor burning
• Reduce outdoor exertion if you have breathing issues
• Monitor forecasts, especially as Thursday approaches

Stay updated at AirNow.gov and weather.gov.

Here's the full NWS forecast from the Minneapolis-St. Paul Airport:

Today: Sunny, with a high near 88. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 88. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Southeast wind around 15 mph.

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. High near 82. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 20 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 10pm, then showers likely between 10pm and 1am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday: Showers likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 64. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 60. West northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. North northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. North wind around 10 mph.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. Northeast wind around 10 mph.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 67. East wind 10 to 15 mph.