How A La Niña Winter Could Affect MN Home Heating Bills

MINNESOTA — Heating costs in Minnesota are expected to be higher than last year, the U.S. government said in a recent 2024-25 winter fuels outlook.

The 2023-24 winter season was one of the warmest on record. With a more seasonal winter expected this year in the Midwest, home heating costs could rise between 2 percent and 11 percent, depending on the energy source:

• Natural gas: $587 base case, up 11 percent
• Electricity: $1,201 base case, up 6 percent
• Propane: $1,228 base case, up 2 percent
• Heating oil: $1,410 base case, down 5 percent

An updated winter outlook last week from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls for colder temperatures and much more snow than last year in Minnesota.

It's worth remembering that the price of crude oil is a wild card. Rising tensions in the Middle East raise “the possibility of oil supply disruption and future crude oil price increases,” the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.