What The Betting Markets Reveal About The Minneapolis Mayor’s Race

MINNEAPOLIS, MN — As Minneapolis voters head to the polls Tuesday to choose a mayor and city council, online prediction markets show Mayor Jacob Frey as the strong favorite to win a third term.

On the U.S.-regulated exchange Kalshi, traders give Frey roughly a 79 percent chance of victory, compared to 24 percent for state Sen. Omar Fateh and about 1 percent for Jazz Hampton.

The crypto-based market Polymarket shows similar odds, with Frey at 76 percent, Fateh at 25 percent, and all others under 1 percent.

Prediction markets are not polls, of course. They aggregate real-money bets from traders reacting to campaign developments.

Editor's note: Patch will provide live election coverage when polls close Tuesday at 8 p.m.

But if betting markets are any indication, Frey enters the final count as a commanding favorite.

Frey, first elected in 2017, is seeking a third term with a campaign centered on steady leadership, continued crime reduction, and affordable-housing expansion. He has backing from major unions, Gov. Tim Walz, and U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar.

Fateh, who represents south Minneapolis in the Minnesota Senate, is running on a progressive platform emphasizing housing justice, labor rights, and police reform. He has the endorsement of U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar and support from local progressive groups.

More than a dozen other candidates also appeared on the ballot, including DeWayne Davis, Jazz Hampton, Andrea Revel, and several independents and minor-party hopefuls.

Minneapolis voters are allowed to rank up to three candidates for mayor. If no one receives a majority of first-choice votes, election officials will eliminate the lowest-performing contenders and reallocate votes until a candidate surpasses 50 percent.

In the 2021 mayoral race, Frey secured reelection after two rounds of tabulation. Ranked-choice counting will begin once first-choice totals are reported and could continue into Wednesday, depending on the number of ballots cast.