Frederickson Moves Ahead Of Dornan In Pivotal Nebraska Legislative Race

Paul Hammel and Aaron Sanderford, Nebraska Examiner:

November 11, 2022

LINCOLN — It looks like Nebraska Democrats may thwart an effort by state Republicans to obtain a filibuster-proof majority in the one-house Nebraska Legislature.

On Friday morning, absentee ballots submitted on Election Day were counted in Douglas County. Those new ballots moved Omaha mental health provider John Frederickson, a Democrat, ahead of attorney Stu Dornan, a Republican, by 69 votes in Legislative District 20.

If that result holds after 204 provisional ballots are counted later this month, Republicans will have fallen one seat short of gaining a supermajority of 33 seats in the 49-seat Unicameral Legislature.

Dornan had been ahead

Tallies on Election Night had put Dornan, a former Douglas County attorney, ahead by 122 votes for a seat now held by State Sen. John McCollister of Omaha, an independent Republican who was term-limited.

But absentee votes typically trend to Democratic candidates, and that’s what happened Friday.

Gaining a filibuster-proof majority is important because it would be enough to overcome legislative maneuvering by moderates and liberals that have blocked several conservative initiatives. Those include an abortion ban, state tax breaks for contributions to private schools, and allowing the carrying of concealed weapons without a state license or required training.

GOP made it a priority

Republicans had made gaining a supermajority a top priority in legislative races this year, and on election night it looked like a red wave was coming.

But it appears to be trickling away now. If the vote totals hold as expected, Democrats will have held onto enough seats — 17 — to mount successful filibusters, making passage of conservative bills more difficult in 2023.

One note of caution — state senators don’t always vote along party lines. There are Democrats in the body who, for instance, support school choice, and McCollister was an example of a GOP senator who sometimes sided with the Democrats. So it’s not cut and dried.

And there’s been some talk around the Capitol of changing the legislative rules so that only 30 votes are needed to overcome a filibuster. Then 19 votes, not 17, would be needed to sustain a filibuster and kill a bill.

One more round of vote-counting is required — that of provisional ballots cast on Election Day. But it’s unlikely that the smaller number of ballots yet to be counted in the Frederickson-Dornan race, 204, will change who wins.

More votes to count

The Douglas County Election Commissioner’s Office has said that provisional ballots will be counted Nov. 18.

Lancaster County also has provisional votes to count, including between 300 and 350 in Legislative District 26 where a Democrat, Democrat George Dungan III, holds a 179-vote lead over his Republican opponent, attorney Russ Barger.

Dungan widened his lead on Thursday after absentee ballots submitted on election day were counted. It is not expected that the provisional votes will change that outcome.

Republicans did “flip” one seat in the State Legislature on Tuesday when GOP former State Sen. Merv Riepe won in a suburban Omaha district that is now represented by Democrat Steve Lathrop, who opted against a re-election bid.

But Frederickson’s anticipated victory would flip one to the Democrats, thus sustaining the current 32-17 GOP margin in the body.

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