Provisional Ballots Boost Nebraska Dems' Margins In Urban Races

Aaron Sanderford, Nebraska Examiner:

November 18, 2022

OMAHA — In the end, voters in Nebraska’s most populous counties helped Democratic state senators hold onto the ability to filibuster legislation they oppose.

On Friday, the election commissioners in Douglas and Lancaster Counties finished the counts of provisional ballots from the Omaha and Lincoln areas that needed to be verified.

The filibuster survives

As a result: The legislative filibuster lives — for at least two more years. Republicans will need 33 votes to pass controversial partisan legislation in the officially nonpartisan Legislature.

Democrats continue to hold 17 of 49 seats. Republicans hold 32.

“Just like at the national level, Republicans thumped their chests all cycle claiming they would take out even Democratic incumbents when in the end (Democrats) proudly held the line,” Jane Kleeb, chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, said in a statement. “Democrats and moderate Republicans can stand together to instead govern effectively for the people.”

A Nebraska Republican Party spokeswoman said they were working on a statement.

John Fredrickson made history Friday as the first openly gay man elected to the Legislature, beating out former Douglas County Attorney Stu Dornan by 82 votes, 50.2%-49.8% in Legislative District 20.

He thanked his family and supporters for giving him the chance to make sure “Nebraska is a place where everyone has the opportunity to thrive.”

“Representation matters,” he said. “When we have diverse perspectives at the table that represent and reflect our state, we make better decisions.”

In Lancaster County, Democrat George Dungan survived a serious challenge from Republican Russ Barger and a wave of outside spending in Legislative District 26 in Lincoln, winning 51%-49%.

Dungan called the campaign “a long road” and said in a statement that “the Legislature is no place for extremism.”

Counts boost Dems

Democrats gained ground in the last round of counting in Douglas and Lancaster Counties, but not enough to flip a single race. Democrats tend to vote provisionally more often than Republicans.

The latest counts narrowed the winning margins for Republicans in the state’s most competitive races.

In the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., saw his Election Day win of 4 percentage points erode.

Derek Oden, Bacon’s campaign manager, said they expected a tight race but knew “voters wanted a sensible check and balance and a workhorse who fights for the district.” Bacon, he said,

Democratic State Sen. Tony Vargas closed to within about 2 percentage points, posting a similar result to nonprofit consultant Kara Eastman in 2018, during her first of two runs against Bacon.

Meg Mandy, Vargas’ campaign manager, said the final vote counts “are a testament to the strategic campaign we ran” and Vargas’ “strength as a candidate.”

“He came very close, despite unfavorable circumstances — a new map that includes rural and small-town Nebraska, in a year when the environment was bad for Democrats nationally, and being outspent 2 to 1, with more than $5 million of misleading attack ads,” Mandy said.

Local races tighten

Republican Douglas County Sheriff-elect Aaron Hanson, an Omaha Police Department sergeant, saw his lead of 1,662 votes shrink to 1,102 votes over Democrat Greg Gonzalez, a retired OPD deputy chief. Republican Douglas County Attorney Don Kleine also beat Democrat Dave Pantos 57%-43%.

And Republican Lancaster County Attorney-elect Pat Condon’s roughly 1,000-vote lead over Democratic State Sen. Adam Morfeld shrank to 781 votes in the end.

Nebraska political consultant Jessica Flanagain described the Republicans’ public safety wins “incredibly significant.” The senior vice president of Axiom Strategies helped with Hanson’s and Kleine’s races and helped handle six figures in outside spending TV ads and mail against Morfeld from a group called Together Nebraska. The ads attacked Morfeld’s lack of courtroom experience.

She said voters rewarded Hanson’s work in the field as an officer, Kleine’s job performance as a prosecutor and Condon’s experience. She called Condon’s win “an incredible upset.”

“Public safety and integrity clearly transcend partisan divisions,” she said.

Morfeld, in a statement, conceded defeat, saying he fell just short in a race where 110,000 votes were cast.

“It was painstakingly close,” Morfeld said. “Ultimately, we could not overcome the nearly $500,000 in attack ads, mailers, and misinformation.”

GOP holds ground statewide

In statewide races, little changed. Republican Gov.-elect Jim Pillen’s tally against Democratic State Sen. Carol Blood finished at 60%-36%.

The final margin in the 1st District congressional race between Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Flood and Democratic State Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks finished at 58%-42%.

Smaller rural counties will finish counting and reporting their provisional ballots over the next couple of weeks, but those tallies are not expected to move results as much as in the more populous counties. Sarpy County had 489 provisionals that have been counted, county election officials said. They will be added to the results early next week.

The State Canvassing Board meets Dec. 5 to compile and discuss the results and order a recount if any are warranted. In Douglas County, the legislative race between Fredrickson and Dornan moved outside of recount territory. In Lancaster County, Condon’s win over Morfeld fell just outside of recount territory, as well.

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