Keller @ Large: Hidden Winners And Losers From The New Hampshire Primary

By Jon Keller, CBS Boston

January 25, 2024

BOSTON - By now you know who won and who lost in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. But there were also some "hidden" winners and losers. The good news first:

Write-in voting was a big winner in the form of the Democrats' extraordinary success in pulling write-in votes for Biden in the unsanctioned Democratic primary. After the White House and the Democratic National Committee stripped New Hampshire of its first-in-the-nation status, the write-in effort was launched to avoid an embarrassing defeat for the incumbent. Biden wasn't on the ballot and didn't campaign, but he won more votes than President Barack Obama drew when he ran for re-election in 2012. Was that showing a reflection of affection for Biden or a conviction that Donald Trump must be stopped? Both, most likely. Negative voting has been the trend in recent American political history, and it was a big winner last night. More Nikki Haley voters said they were voting out of dislike for Trump than support for her. And it's a safe bet that large numbers of votes for Biden and Trump were at least in part motivated by distaste for the other.

And if you are skeptical of political polls, your skepticism was a winner on Tuesday. The six most recent surveys of GOP primary voters all overstated Trump's support. Only one poll in the final days nailed the eleven-point spread, the CNN/UNH survey. Otherwise, you might have done better consulting an Ouija board.

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