Major NJ Snowstorm In February ‘Likely’ After Winter Warmup: NWS

NEW JERSEY - Fans of winter weather in the Garden State are likely to enjoy February, but will have to wait a week or two into the month to see major snowfall, forecasters said.

That’s because the first two weeks of February are set to continue with above average temperatures through the middle of the month, according to the National Climate Prediction Center.

“That said, February is the most likely month for our region to get a major snowstorm, so stay tuned,” the National Weather Service Mount Holly Station said.

2 years ago today! Nothing like this appears to be in the near-future. That said, February is the most likely month for our region to get a major snowstorm, so stay tuned... pic.twitter.com/bcdbdVtFoX
— NWS Mount Holly (@NWS_MountHolly) January 29, 2024

Historically, February gets the most snow out of any month in the year in New Jersey, with monthly snowfall totals averaging about 6.6 inches of snowfall from 1971 to 2015. That’s compared to 6.4 inches in January and 3.2 inches in March.

While this year has seen far below the average snow totals so far, the ongoing El Nino climate pattern associated with coastal storms, temperature swings and snowier late winters in New Jersey may shake things up later this season. Read more: El Niño May Be 'Historically Strong' In 2024: What It Means For NJ

"The window for snow-producing nor'easters will open in late January through February which could dish out hefty snowfall amounts to Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and beyond," AccuWeather predicted in its 2023-24 winter outlook, noting "a strengthening El Niño will make this winter different than last year."

In most El Niño winters, New Jersey has a higher snow total from January to March – up to 4 inches more than average. In moderate to strong El Niño winters, we normally see even snowier conditions during that period, with totals in southern portions of the state ranging up to 10 inches above the average.

For now, the only precipitation Garden State residents can expect this week is plain rain Thursday night into Friday, before a sunny weekend in the 40s.

Here’s the latest forecast, according to the National Weather Service:

North Jersey

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Light and variable wind.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Light west wind.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. West wind around 6 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 43. North wind 9 to 13 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 24.

Central Jersey

Wednesday: Cloudy, with a high near 40. East wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers after 1 a.m. Cloudy, with a low around 36. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday: A slight chance of showers before 10 a.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. North wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 27.

South Jersey

Wednesday: Cloudy, with a high near 44. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Increasing clouds, with a low around 36. Southwest wind around 5 mph.

Friday: A slight chance of showers before 1 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 26.