New Jersey House Incumbents Hold Stark Cash Leads

By Nikita Biryukov, New Jersey Monitor

October 18, 2022

Incumbents held major cash leads in New Jersey’s most competitive House districts at the end of September, maintaining funding advantages they’ve nurtured all cycle, according to campaign finance filings.

Sitting House members in the five most closely watched races have raised roughly $30.3 million to their opponents’ $8.3 million, while the incumbents have spent about $18.4 million to the challengers’ $6.1 million, the most recent Federal Election Commission filings show.

Heading into Election Day on Nov. 8, the incumbents were sitting on $24.2 million as of Sept. 30 — $14 million of that belongs just to Rep. Josh Gottheimer — and the challengers’ war chests totaled $2.3 million.

“Incumbents win most of the time that they run,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of Rider University’s Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics. “Smart donor money is going to try and make a smart investment, right? They don’t want to bet on losers. They want to bet on winners. They want to bet on people who are going to be in office and be around after the election to get an agenda done.”

Republicans are hoping President Joe Biden’s dismal approval ratings, stubborn inflation, and voters’ dismal outlook on the country’s direction will help the party win back control of Congress after November, and the GOP is eyeing congressional districts like New Jersey’s 7th in its bid to return to power.

7th District

In the 7th District, where Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski faces a repeat challenge from Republican former state Sen. Tom Kean Jr., the incumbent has raised just over $7.8 million in this cycle — $1.8 million of that in the quarter ending Sept. 30 — and his total spending was $5.1 million.

His fundraising figures dwarf those of his Republican opponent, whose fundraising total was roughly $3.7 million. Kean, whom Malinowski defeated in 2020 by just 5,329 votes, has spent a little more than $2.6 million.

The spending spree left Malinowski with just under $2.8 million in reserves, to Kean’s less than $1.2 million.

It’s not clear how much of an advantage Malinowski’s fundraising lead actually lends him, especially given the district’s location in the New York media market, which is the most expensive in the nation.

“The question is, what are you getting for your money? You can’t buy a huge get-out-the-vote mechanism. It helps, but a lot of it is still based on volunteers,” said Daniel Cassino, executive director of the Farleigh Dickinson University Poll. “There’s a limit to how much money helps you in a district like that. If we were in a more rural district where you can buy TV, that money matters a lot more.”

The district’s race, believed widely to be the most likely Republican pickup in the state, has drawn attention from outside spending groups that have spent their money dinging Malinowski.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC with ties to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-California), has spent more than $2.5 million backing Kean or attacking Malinowski, according to FEC filings.

Kean has faced a similar, if smaller, deluge of attacks backed by outside groups, with $591,112 spent against him, chiefly by the House Majority PAC, which has ties to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California).

House Majority also gave $500,000 to the Moderate Party Independent Fund in September. The group has so far spent $80,000 attacking Kean or boosting his opponent.

New Jersey Republican derided the gift from the Pelosi-aligned super PAC, noting Malinowski allies had used the Moderate Party’s endorsement of him to burnish his bipartisan bona fides.

11th District

Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat, held a chasmic cash lead in the 11th District at the start of October after out-raising GOP challenger Paul DeGroot by a factor of nine throughout the course of the race.

Sherrill, a two-term incumbent, has raised nearly $5.8 million to DeGroot’s $636,324.

Their spending follows the same tract. By Sept. 30, Sherrill had expended nearly $5.7 million, about 16 times the $357,327 disbursed by DeGroot.

There’s no silver lining for the challenger. He had just $278,996 held in reserve at the end of the third quarter, to Sherrill’s roughly $3.4 million.

5th District

Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer’s cash lead in the 5th District was, without question, the largest in the state. Facing his own repeat challenger in Republican investment banker Frank Pallotta, the three-term incumbent has continued to swell his own war chest amid his opponent’s cash struggles.

The Democrat has raised $7.9 million to date. That money bolstered the already voluminous reserves the Democrat has amassed since first winning his seat in 2016, bringing his cash on hand to just over $14 million.

Pallotta has raised just $732,030 this cycle.

Pallotta spent $742,546 and had only $171,134 in reserves at the end of the quarter. His campaign holds $506,669 in debt, just $105,000 of which comes from loans the candidate made to his electoral effort this cycle. He loaned the campaign the remainder of the balance last cycle.

Pallotta has been at a financial disadvantage from the start: Gottheimer began the campaign cycle with $8.4 million in reserves.

“To me, the most valuable resource that a campaign has is time. It’s even more valuable than money, and when someone like Josh Gottheimer has $14 million in the bank, Frank Pallotta, the first thing he does getting into the race is to try and get even, but he can never get even because he can never catch up,” Rasmussen said.

3rd District

Two-term Democratic incumbent Rep. Andy Kim outraised his Republican challenger, Bob Healey Jr., by more than 2-to-1 through the end of September.

Since the start of the race, the Democrat has brought in roughly $6.2 million to Healey’s close to $2.9 million, though his fundraising advantage is larger than it appears. More than a third of Healey’s fundraising, about $1.3 million, came from personal loans the candidate made to his campaign.

A similarly sized spending gap separated the two candidates. Kim has so far spent about $2.4 million. Healey has spent about $1.2 million, leaving the challenger with $654,376 to the congressman’s $3 million.

It’s not clear whether Healey, a millionaire co-chairman of the Viking Yacht Company and related firms, intends to put additional funds behind his congressional bid.

He may not need to — his mother already has. Ellen Healey in March donated $2 million to Garden State Advance, a super PAC that has now spent more than $1 million savaging Kim and $575,835 boosting Healey, spending that dwarfs the involvement of all other outside groups in the district.

2nd District

GOP Rep. Jeff Van Drew maintains a similar advantage over Democrat Tim Alexander in the 2nd District.

The Democrat-turned-Republican has raised nearly $3 million this cycle and spent nearly $2.4 million in a bid to secure a third term. Coupled with money carried over from his previous election, that leaves him with $924,689 banked.

Though his reserves are surpassed by those of incumbents in some other districts, his cash lead is among the most striking in the state, if only because of his challenger’s floundering fundraising efforts.

Alexander, an attorney, had just $34,794 banked at the end of September, having spent almost all of the $441,883 he’s raised for his campaign. His total spending on advertising of any kind in the most recent quarter amounted to less than $2,000.

The most recent reports do not reflect fundraising or spending made after Sept. 30. Fundraising and spending totals for the first 19 days of October will be released on Oct. 27.

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