NJ Gubernatorial Race Leader: What This New Poll Shows

As early voting in the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election approaches its final day, multiple political polls have been trying to figure out who will prevail between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli.

According to a poll conducted Oct. 30 by Suffolk University in Boston, Sherrill holds a slim lead over Ciattarelli statewide. The poll, which surveyed 500 likely voters in Tuesday's general election found Sherrill leading 46 percent to 42 percent statewide, and 43 percent to 42 percent in Bergen County, the organization said.

Those numbers are well within the margin of error, the organization said.

Bergen County is considered a reliable predictor of gubernatorial outcomes, the center said. In the 2013 election, Republican Chris Christie carried Bergen County 60 percent to 39 percent, and won statewide by 60 percent to 38 percent. Phil Murphy won Bergen County 57 percent to 42 percent in 2017 and statewide won 56 percent to 42 percent. In 2021, Murphy was re-elected by a statewide margin of 51 percent to 48 percent and by 53 percent to 47 percent in Bergen County, Suffolk pollsters noted.

The statewide poll indicated small pockets of support for Socialist Workers Party Joanne Kuniansky (1 percent) and Libertarian Vic Kaplan (1 percent) with 7 percent of voters still undecided and 3 percent refusing a response.

Among those statewide who have already cast ballots, Sherrill led Ciattarelli 56 percent to 35 percent. In Bergen County, Sherrill led 63 percent to 27 percent among those who have voted already.

Among those who have voted for or plan to vote for Ciattarelli, 28 percent said they are pro-Ciattarelli, while 33 percent said they are voting for hiim because they are against the Democratic leadership. Just 8.5 percent were anti-Sherrill.

Among those who have voted for or plan to vote for Sherrill, 21.6 percent were pro-Sherrill, and nearly 36 percent were voting for her because they oppose President Donald Trump. There were 19 percent choosing Sherrill because they support the Democratic leadership, the poll showed, and just 8.6 percent who are anti-Ciattarelli.

The poll also asked who voters blame more for the government shutdown, 38 percent blamed Congressional Democrats, 23 percent blamed Congressional Republicans, and 24 percent blamed Trump.

Trump was viewed unfavorably by 52 percent of those polled, with 40 percent viewing him favorably, and 51.8 percent disapproved of the job he is doing as president, with 39.2 percent approving.

Murphy was viewed unfavorably by 43 percent and favorably by 43.2 percent, with 46 percent disapproving of the job he is doing as governor and 39 percent approving.

Ciattarelli was viewed favorably by 38 percent of those polled and unfavorably by 42.2 percent, while Sherrill was viewed favorably by 43.6 percent and unfavorably by 36.4 percent.

One voter had never heard of Murphy, according to the poll.

Of the 500 polled, 61.4 percent described themselves as either moderate (187, 37.4 percent) or conservative (120, or 24 percent), with 6.2 percent describing themselves as very conservative and 6 percent describing themselves as very liberal.

Read the full poll results here.

The Suffolk University Political Research Center has been conducting statewide and national surveys as well as bellwether polls since 2002, and the center says its presidential polls have predicted outcomes in key battleground states including Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.