Study Shows Probable Decline In Chatham Enrollment Rates

CHATHAM, NJ — The enrollment figures in the School District of the Chathams have been declining, and it is not anticipated that they will increase any time soon, according to a statistical forecasting presentation made at the December board of education meeting.

Enrollment has been declining in all of New Jersey's traditional public schools. According to new enrollment data from the state Department of Education, enrollment has dropped by about 15,000 in the two years since the pandemic caused school closures and other classroom disruptions.

Richard S. Grip, Executive Director of Statistical Forecasting LLC., presented his study on the future demographics of the school district to the public.

Grip's presentation broke down the historical and current populations of both Chatham Borough and Chatham Township in order to get a better idea of future population trends. Currently, Chatham has a combined total of approximately 21,000 residents.

Enrollment in the School District of the Chathams has been steadily declining for the last five years. "When I came here four years ago, there had been a period of big enrollment increases in the school district and I was projecting an enrollment decline, and that has happened in the last four years," Grip said.

While it's unclear how much the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent restrictions contributed to the district's enrollment drop, Grip did report a 309 student drop during the 2020-2021 school year.

Another factor contributing to the decline is a lower birth rate in both the borough and the township. According to Grip, there were a total of 272 births in Chatham in 2007, whereas there will be 156 in 2020.

These figures correspond to the declining kindergarten enrollment rates that have occurred over time.

Although the study only looked at data up until 2020, the presentation projected through the year 2027, which one resident claimed is not the most accurate reflection.

"I was a little bit bummed that the cut-off was 2020, because, we're seeing record numbers this past year so I'm really interested to see how we are projecting forward," local resident and maternity nurse Sharon Roché said.

At the end of the presentation, Grip stated that although the enrollment trend won't be getting much better within the next five years, the biggest change is going to come from increased housing developments.

Typically, communities will see population growth through home sales, but according to Grip that won't be the case in Chatham.

"Most likely housing turnover is not going to be the issue that causes enrollment to increase here. Other things such as housing developments, birth rate changes are going to be the things that modify your enrollment," Grip said.

The trend of enrollment decline may be reversed in part by the recent increase in housing developments planned for the Chathams.