Murphy Tops Ciattarelli In Latest Stockton Poll

NEW JERSEY - While neither candidate received more than 50 percent support, Gov. Phil Murphy leads Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli in Stockton University poll that was released Wednesday morning.

Murphy leads Ciattarelli, 50 percent to 41 percent, among 552 likely voters that were polled by the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University, the institute announced. Nine percent were undecided or didn’t like either candidate.

The poll was conducted last week, before the gubernatorial candidates met in the first of two debates this election cycle on Tuesday night. Read more here: 4 Takeaways From The First Murphy, Ciattarelli Debate

The top issue cited by those polled was the coronavirus pandemic, where Murphy held a 50 percent to 34 percent lead over Ciattarelli. When broken down by policy, Murphy’s lead was even bigger:

• 58 percent support mask mandates in schools, to 37 percent opposed
• 56 percent support a mandate that employers with more than 100 workers require them to be vaccinated or be tested weekly for the virus to 44 percent opposed
• 63 percent support a vaccine requirement for health care workers to 34 percent opposed.

However, polling was much closer when it came to requiring proof of vaccination to enter restaurants, public events, or entertainment venues, 50 percent to 46 percent in support.

One-fourth of those polled cited the pandemic as the biggest issue. The election’s next top issues are identified as taxes in general (12 percent), property taxes (10 percent) and the economy (6 percent).

Ciattarelli topped Murphy when it came to taxes, with 46 percent saying see Ciattarelli as better at handling New Jersey tax policy, compared to 38 percent on that issue. It was a statistical tie when it comes to the state’s economy, with 43 percent favoring Ciattarelli and 42 percent favoring Murphy.

“Even though this result is a statistical tie, an incumbent wants more people feeling good about how things are going in the state,” William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University Director John Froonjian said.

In the spring, the center polled registered (but not necessarily likely) voters, with 49 percent of respondents saying they thought the state was headed in the right direction, and 40 percent saying they felt it was going in the wrong direction.

Murphy received positive reviews for the job he’s doing overall in the poll released on Wednesday, with 54 percent having a favorable view and 41 percent disapproving of his performance. He was viewed favorably by 50 percent of respondents, and unfavorably by 43 percent, with 5 percent saying they were unfamiliar with the governor.

Despite Ciattarelli running ads online and on TV for the past month, 45 percent of respondents were not familiar with him, and 3 percent said they weren’t sure how they felt about him. This included 33 percent of Republicans. Among those who did recognize him, 32 percent viewed him favorably, and 21 percent viewed him unfavorably.

“As a clean slate to many, Ciattarelli has the chance to tell his story and introduce himself to voters,” Froonjian said. “The Murphy campaign will likely try to define him first in negative terms.”

As is the case nationally, the poll finds strong polarization between Democrats and Republicans in New Jersey. There is strong Democratic support for Murphy and his policies surrounding the coronavirus. There is equally strong Republican opposition. There are 1 million more registered Democrats in New Jersey than there are registered Republicans.

The results fall in line with other recent polling. A recent Monmouth poll puts Murphy over Ciattarelli by 13 points at 51 percent to 38 percent. Read more here: Latest Poll: Murphy Has Big Lead, Ciattarelli Says Race Is Close

A Rutgers-Eagleton poll released in June said the election is "Murphy's to lose," with 52 percent of registered voters saying they'd cast ballots for the incumbent governor and just 26 percent saying they'd choose Ciattarelli. Read more here: NJ Gov. Candidate: $490K Debate Fundraising Quota Is A 'Travesty'

According to a poll released by The Ciattarelli Campaign in September, the Republican candidate trails Murphy by three points, 42 percent to 45 percent.

The Club for Growth PAC poll puts Murphy in the lead over Ciattarelli, 43 percent to 41 percent, also within the margin of error.

The Stockton poll was conducted from Sept. 17-25, via live phone calls from interviewers who were mostly Stockton students. Overall, 85 percent of interviews were conducted on cell phones and 15 percent on landline phones.

A total of 552 registered voters were interviewed after being screened as likely voters on criteria including self-professed intention to vote on a scale of 1 to 10, having voted in New Jersey’s 2017 election, and how closely voters are following the election.

Both cell and landline samples included a mix of voter list and random digit dialing (RDD) sample. Data are weighted based on U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey data for New Jersey on variables of age, race, ethnicity, education level, sex and region.

The poll's margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.