Updated Snow Forecast For New Jersey's Winter 2023

NEW JERSEY— An El Niño climate pattern will mean the Garden State will have a wetter winter, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said in an updated U.S. Winter Outlook released Thursday. But will that mean more snow?

AccuWeather and other long-range weather prediction services call for a snowier and colder winter ahead with the arrival of El Niño, a climate cycle that results in the unusual warming of equatorial Pacific Ocean waters.

The United States hasn’t had an El Niño winter in four years. New Jersey is forecast to have around a 33 to 40 percent chance of wetter-than-average conditions, with no drought concerns. But this new enhanced wet weather forecast does not equate to higher snow totals, as the average temperature is also expected to be higher than normal, the NOAA said.

According to AccuWeather's 2023-24 winter outlook, there could be multiple nor'easters to the state in January and February, dumping inches of snow compared to the below-average amounts that the majority of New Jersey saw over the relatively weak 2022-23 winter.

"The window for snow-producing nor'easters will open in late January through February which could dish out hefty snowfall amounts to Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and beyond," AccuWeather predicted.

AccuWeather long-range meteorologists are predicting 18-26 inches in New York City and 16-24 inches in Philadelphia in total for winter 2023/24, which is around the historical average but far higher than last year's totals.

Compare this to last winter for those metro areas in New Jersey, when communities close to New York City saw between 3 and 4 inches and the South Jersey region saw just a light dusting, according to seasonal snowfall totals from the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist.
"An early-season nor'easter can't be ruled out either, as the ingredients for a snowstorm may come together sometime in November," AccuWeather continued.

And, the Farmer's Almanac said in its extended 2023-24 winter forecast that the Northeast region is in for plenty of winter rain, sleet, and snow.

"For those of you living along the I-95 corridor from Washington to Boston, who saw a lack of wintry precipitation last winter, you should experience quite the opposite, with lots of rain/sleet and snowstorms to contend with," said the Farmers' Almanac.

This post contains reporting from Michelle Rotuno-Johnson.