Here's What NJ Governor Polls Predicted Last Election – And What They're Saying Now

No poll is a sure thing, especially when a governor race hangs in the balance.

New Jersey is one of two states with a gubernatorial election happening in 2025. U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill is running as a Democrat against the Republican nominee, former state assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli.

The state’s current governor, Phil Murphy, is term-limited and can’t run again this year.

In the past few months, several independent polls have tried to pin down who the frontrunner is. Multiple polls reported that Sherrill has a single-digit lead, although one recent study found that the two candidates are locked in a “dead heat.”

New Jersey’s last gubernatorial election took place in 2021, when Murphy – a Democrat – matched up against Ciattarelli. In the months leading up to the election, several polls reported Murphy as the frontrunner. According to Real Clear Politics, the average poll put him ahead by 7.8 percentage points that year.

The final result? Murphy eked out a close win, getting 1,339,471 votes (51.2 percent) to Ciattarelli’s 1,255,185 votes (48 percent) – a difference of 3.2 points.

Many pundits have questioned the reliability of political polls, particularly in an age when many people have stopped responding to phone calls, and pollsters have been forced to rely on more complex models when they crunch the numbers.

“You’ll often hear about election polls when they’re being cited to show who’s ahead and who’s behind in the race – the ‘horse race,’” said Scott Keeter, a senior survey advisor at the Pew Research Center.

“Though it often attracts the most attention, discovering the level of support each candidate has – or even forecasting the outcome of the election – isn’t the most important reason election polls are conducted,” explained Keeter, pointing to other useful data often revealed in the studies.

“Polls have always been flawed,” another expert said last year, advising voters to turn their attention to the candidates’ stances on the issues and plans for what they will do in office.

“Polls are very discouraging for myself, and sometimes make me feel: why bother?” a Patch reader in New Jersey recently commented.

Other pundits have argued that there is still an important place for polls, however.

“The challenges involved in attempting to do a good job of measuring public opinion don’t obviate the original premise about its value,” an opinion piece on Gallup.com stated. “In America’s representative democracy, we are always better off knowing what the public is thinking than not.”

With that in mind, here’s a look at how accurate the governor polls were in 2021 – and what they’re predicting for 2025.

EMERSON COLLEGE

• 2021 Poll – An Emerson College poll found Murphy with a six-point lead over Ciattarelli (50% to 44%). The poll was done between Oct. 15 and Oct. 18, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.
• 2025 Poll – An Emerson College poll found Sherrill in a tie with Ciattarelli (43% each). The poll was done between Sept. 22 and Sept. 23, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

FAIRLEIGH DICKENSON UNIVERSITY

• 2021 Poll – No poll released
• 2025 Poll – A Fairleigh Dickenson University poll found Sherrill with an eight-point lead over Ciattarelli (45% to 37%). The poll was done between July 17 and July 23, and had a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points.

MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY

• 2021 Poll – A Monmouth University poll found Murphy with an 11-point lead over Ciattarelli (50% to 39%). The poll was done between Oct. 21 and Oct. 25, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
• 2025 Poll – No poll released

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY

• 2021 Poll – No poll released
• 2025 Poll – A Quinnipiac University poll found Sherrill with an eight-point lead over Ciattarelli (49% to 41%). The poll was done between Sept. 11 and Sept. 15, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.

RUTGERS-EAGLETON

• 2021 Poll – A Rutgers-Eagleton poll found Murphy with an eight-point lead over Ciattarelli (50% to 42%). The poll was done between Oct. 21 and Oct. 27, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.
• 2025 Poll – A Rutgers-Eagleton poll found Sherrill with a nine-point lead over Ciattarelli (44% to 35%). The poll was done between July 31 and Aug. 11, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

STOCKTON UNIVERSITY

• 2021 Poll – A Stockton University poll found Murphy with a nine-point lead over Ciattarelli (50% to 41%). The poll was done between Oct. 17 and Oct. 26, and had a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.
• 2025 Poll – A Stockton University poll found that 34 percent of likely voters have a “favorable” view of Sherrill, while 32 percent have a favorable view of Ciattarelli. The poll was done between Sept. 25 and Sept. 30, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

OTHER POLLS

Several other polls have been released on the 2025 governor election, including an internal poll from the Ciattarelli campaign that placed him in a tie with Sherrill – which got a callout on social media from President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, a poll released by the Sherrill campaign on Sept. 30 showed the congresswoman with a seven-point lead.

Another recent poll from Fox News found Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by eight points (50% to 42%).

Many experts have cautioned against putting much faith in an “internal” poll released by a candidate or a poll done by a partisan media outlet, however – regardless of their party.

“While non-partisan and media-sponsored surveys typically release all of their polling results, partisan sponsors and candidates may only release results when they bolster a campaign narrative,” the American Association for Public Opinion Research says.

“Public polling results from partisan sponsors or candidates should typically be taken with a grain of salt,” the nonprofit adds.

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