New Poll Names Leader In NJ Governor Race, First Debate Nears For Sherrill And Ciattarelli

With less than two months remaining until Election Day – and their first head-to head debate lurking just around the corner – another poll is putting Mikie Sherrill ahead of Jack Ciattarelli in the 2025 race for New Jersey governor.

Quinnipiac University released its latest gubernatorial poll for New Jersey on Wednesday. Read the full survey and learn more about its methodology here.

Pollsters reported that Sherrill, the Democratic candidate, saw 49 percent support from likely voters. The Republican nominee, Ciattarelli, saw 41 percent support.

Each candidate is seeing heavy support among their own parties. Sherrill is sitting at 93 percent with Democrats, and Ciattarelli is at 90 percent with Republicans.

Independent voters – a crucial bloc in New Jersey – are more of a toss-up, with 45 percent backing Sherrill and 41 percent supporting Ciattarelli.

Quinnipiac University said 1,238 New Jersey likely voters were surveyed from Sept. 11 to Sept. 15, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points, including the design effect.

The poll’s release comes just a few days ahead of the first debate between Sherrill and Ciattarelli. The two will meet on Sunday, Sept. 21 at Rider University in Lawrenceville for the first of two required debates for candidates receiving public funding. Another debate will take place on Oct. 8.

>> Read More: How To Watch NJ Governor Debates For 2025 Election

According to state election data, there were 2.52 million registered Democrats, 1.66 million registered Republicans and 2.32 million unaffiliated voters in New Jersey as of Sept. 1.

The general election will take place on Tuesday, Nov. 4. Learn more about voting in New Jersey here.

BIGGEST ISSUES

When asked about the “most important” issue in the election, about 30 percent of likely voters said it was “taxes” (30 percent) followed by “ethics in government” (14 percent), Quinnipiac University reported.

Voters were split on two hot-button topics in New Jersey, property taxes and electricity costs:

• Property Taxes – Likely voters were asked which candidate they think would do a better job handling property taxes in New Jersey, regardless of how they intend to vote. Pollsters reported that 46 percent say Ciattarelli, while 40 percent say Sherrill. Fourteen percent did not offer an opinion.
• Electricity Costs – Likely voters were asked which candidate they think would do a better job handling electricity costs in New Jersey, regardless of how they intend to vote. Pollsters said 42 percent say Sherrill, while 40 percent say Ciattarelli. Seventeen percent did not offer an opinion.

THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATES

Libertarian Party candidate Vic Kaplan and Socialist Worker Party candidate Joanne Kuniansky each received 1 percent support in the latest Quinnipiac University poll.

Without third party candidates included, Sherrill would receive 51 percent support among likely voters and Ciattarelli would receive 42 percent support. Seven percent are either undecided (5 percent) or did not provide a response (2 percent).

Candidates running write-in campaigns for the 2025 gubernatorial election include Lily Benavides (Green Party) and Darrell Armstrong (independent).

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PREVIOUS POLLS

The Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling released its latest numbers for the state’s gubernatorial race in late August. Sherrill held a nine-point lead over Ciattarelli, pollsters found.

Pollsters said the race is still very competitive – and independent voters may be the deciding factor.

“Independents are always a key voting bloc here in New Jersey,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick.

“Despite recent Republican registration gains, Ciattarelli still needs a substantial share of independents to win in November,” Koning said. “Likewise, Sherrill must hold her edge with independents across key areas to cushion against any softness in base turnout.”

>> Read More: Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Names Leader In 2025 NJ Governor Race

The numbers from this week’s Rutgers-Eagleton poll were similar to another recent gubernatorial poll from Fairleigh Dickenson University (FDU).

The FDU poll – released on July 29 – found that Sherrill (45 percent) had an eight-point lead over Ciattarelli (37 percent). Another 16 percent of likely voters remained undecided, pollsters said.

“Unless something goes horribly awry, partisans are going to vote for their party’s candidate,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of government and politics at FDU.

• See Related: NJ Democrats Rally Behind Mikie Sherrill After Primary Election
• See Related: Trump Endorses Ciattarelli In NJ Governor Race

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