Latest Poll Shows Huge Shift In NJ's Governor's Race

A new poll has New Jersey governor candidates Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli in a dead heat as the countdown to Election Day continues.

Emerson College Polling released its latest survey of likely voters on Thursday, finding that the Democratic and Republican candidates were each tied at 43 percent support. Pollsters said 11 percent of voters remain undecided.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, pointed out two significant divides in the polling:

AGE – “Young voters, under 40, break for Sherrill by large margins, 58% to 24%. The race tightens to seven points among voters in their 40s, with Sherrill leading 47% to 40%, then Ciattarelli flips the script among voters over 50, leading Sherrill 52% to 36% among this group.”

GENDER – “A stark gender divide also emerges among Garden State voters: women break for Sherrill by 10 points, 46% to 36%, while men break for Ciattarelli by 12 points, 51% to 39%. Notably, women are over twice as likely to be undecided at 15% compared to 6% of men.”

Economic concerns continue to top New Jersey voters’ concerns, pollsters found: 51 percent think the economy is the top issue facing the state, followed by threats to democracy (13 percent), housing affordability (11 percent), health care (6 percent), immigration policy (5 percent) and crime (5 percent).

President Donald Trump and New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy are both casting shadows over the race, Kimball said.

Trump holds a 41 percent job approval and 51 percent disapproval rating, with 9 percent remaining neutral. Meanwhile, Murphy holds a 35 percent job approval rating, and 44 percent disapprove of the job he is doing, with 21 percent remaining neutral.

“Both President Trump and Gov. Murphy are underwater among Jersey voters,” Kimball said. “Sherrill is trying to tie Ciattarelli to Trump at the national level, and Ciattarelli is trying to tie Sherrill to Murphy and the cost of living at the state level,” Kimball said.

The Emerson College Polling New Jersey survey was conducted on Sept. 22 and Sept. 23. The overall sample of New Jersey somewhat/very likely voters, n=935, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, previous vote history and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.

• Related: Sherrill, Ciattarelli: Here’s Why I Should Be NJ Governor (In 500 Words)

PREVIOUS POLLS

Other recent polls have shown Sherrill with a single-digit lead over Ciattarelli. However, pollsters have said the race is still very competitive – and independent voters may be the deciding factor.

Quinnipiac University released its latest gubernatorial poll earlier this month, reporting Sherrill at 49 percent support and Ciattarelli at 41 percent support.

The Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling released its latest numbers for the state’s gubernatorial race in August, finding Sherrill with a nine-point lead.

A Fairleigh Dickenson University released in July found that Sherrill had an eight-point lead over Ciattarelli.

ELECTION NEARS

The general election will take place on Tuesday, Nov. 4. Learn more about voting in New Jersey here.

Sherrill is currently serving in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 11th district. She recently chose pastor and university president Dale Caldwell as her lieutenant governor nominee. Read More: Sherrill Picks Caldwell As Running Mate For 2025 Election

Ciattarelli is a former state assemblyman from New Jersey. He has picked Morris County Sheriff James Gannon as his lieutenant governor nominee. Read More: Ciattarelli Taps County Sheriff As Running Mate In 2025 Election

Third-party and independent candidates running in the 2025 election include Vic Kaplan (Libertarian Party) and Joanne Kuniansky (Socialist Workers Party). Candidates running write-in campaigns include Lily Benavides (Green Party) and Darrell Armstrong (independent).

According to state election data, there were 2.52 million registered Democrats, 1.66 million registered Republicans and 2.32 million unaffiliated voters in New Jersey as of Sept. 1.

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