Poll Names Leader In 2025 NJ Governor Race: Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli

Mikie Sherrill is polling ahead of Jack Ciattarelli as the 2025 New Jersey governor race enters the home stretch, a recent survey says.

The Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling released its latest numbers for the state’s gubernatorial race on Thursday. Less than three months remain before Election Day.

Sherrill, the Democratic nominee, currently holds a nine-point lead over Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate, pollsters said.

According to Rutgers-Eagleton:

“Forty-four percent say they would vote for Sherrill if the election were being held today, while 35% say they would vote for Ciattarelli, 3% say they would vote for neither or someone else and 17% are unsure. When leaners are included—that is, respondents who first declined to choose but selected a candidate on a follow-up prompt – 47% back Sherrill, and 37% back Ciattarelli; 3% choose neither or someone else, and 12% remain undecided.”

Pollsters said the race is still very competitive – and independent voters may be the deciding factor.

“Partisans take their respective sides, with 85 percent of Democrats saying they would vote for Sherrill and 81 percent of Republicans saying they would vote for Ciattarelli,” researchers reported.

“Independents are nearly split down the middle, however: 33 percent for Sherrill versus 32 percent for Ciattarelli, with 29 percent unsure,” pollsters added.

According to state election data, there were 2,531,752 registered Democrats, 1,666,927 registered Republicans and 2,319,186 unaffiliated voters in New Jersey as of Aug. 1.

“Independents are always a key voting bloc here in New Jersey,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick.

“Despite recent Republican registration gains, Ciattarelli still needs a substantial share of independents to win in November,” Koning said. “Likewise, Sherrill must hold her edge with independents across key areas to cushion against any softness in base turnout.”

Other highlights from the latest Rutgers-Eagleton poll include:

GENDER - “While both men and women say they would vote for Sherrill at about the same rate, women are 11 points less likely than men to say they would vote for Ciattarelli and are nine points more likely to be undecided.”

RACE - “White voters are divided between the two candidates (38% Sherrill to 44% Ciattarelli), but Sherrill leads by double digits among Black voters (69% to 4%), Hispanic voters (56% to 22%), and Asian voters (47% to 18%). About one in five Black voters and Hispanic voters and one-third of Asian voters remain uncertain, however.”

AGE - “Sherrill has a wide lead among those ages 18 to 34 (48% to 21%), but her lead narrows among those 35 to 49 years old (47% to 29%), as well as among those who are 65 years or older (48% to 38%). Her lead disappears among voters ages 50 to 64 (36% to 41%).”

SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS - “Sherrill does better with voters who have at least a college degree (53% to 26%), while Ciattarelli does better with those who have some college or less (34% to 45%). Sherrill’s lead over Ciattarelli is largest among voters in households making $150,000 or more annually (58% to 28%). Voters in less affluent households are more divided: 37% to 44% among those in households making between $100,000 and $150,000, 39% to 32% among those making $50,000 or less, and 43% to 35% among those making $50,000-100,000).”

LOCATION - “Sherrill’s biggest margin over Ciattarelli comes from voters in urban areas (46% to 23%) and suburban areas (49% to 30%). Voters in other regions of the state are nearly split between the two candidates: 41% to 41% among exurbanites, 39% to 41% among those living in the southern part of the state or near Philadelphia, and 43% to 39% among shore dwellers.”

Results are from a statewide poll of 1,650 likely voters contacted through the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel from July 31 to Aug. 11. The sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

See the full results and learn about its methodology here.

OTHER POLLS

The numbers from this week’s Rutgers-Eagleton poll were similar to another recent gubernatorial poll from Fairleigh Dickenson University (FDU).

The FDU poll – released on July 29 – found that Sherrill (45 percent) had an eight-point lead over Ciattarelli (37 percent). Another 16 percent of likely voters remained undecided, pollsters said.

“Unless something goes horribly awry, partisans are going to vote for their party’s candidate,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of government and politics at FDU.

“While Republicans have been narrowing the gap, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in the state, and Ciattarelli needs to start pulling in more independents and Democrats if he wants to win,” Cassino said.

• See Related: NJ Democrats Rally Behind Mikie Sherrill After Primary Election
• See Related: Trump Endorses Ciattarelli In NJ Governor Race

ELECTION NEARS

Sherrill is currently serving in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 11th district. She recently chose pastor and university president Dale Caldwell as her lieutenant governor nominee. Read More: Sherrill Picks Caldwell As Running Mate For 2025 Election

Ciattarelli is a former state assemblyman from New Jersey. He has picked Morris County Sheriff James Gannon as his lieutenant governor nominee. Read More: Ciattarelli Taps County Sheriff As Running Mate In 2025 Election

Third-party and independent candidates include Vic Kaplan (Libertarian Party), Lily Benavides (Green Party), Joanne Kuniansky (Socialist Workers Party), Gerardo Cedrone (independent), Karen Zaletel (independent) and Darrell Armstrong (independant).

The general election will take place on Tuesday, Nov. 4. Learn more about voting in New Jersey here.

• See Related: How To Watch NJ Governor Debates For 2025 Election
• See Related: NJ Governor Candidates Share Plans To Combat Rising Utility Bills

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