Demographer to Predict School Population Future

With an eye on being more competitive in future grant applications, the wants a demographer to predict school district enrollment figures years in advance.

The future telling will be done by Ross Haber Associates, and will be based on a variety of factors, including everything from previous enrollment figures to housing trends and socio-economic conditions throughout the borough.  According to Business Administrator Annie Darrow, the difficulties in applying for some grants comes from not having an accurate idea of what to expect from future enrollment numbers. Though the district can make assumptions based on trends from past years, official predications help legitimize the numbers.

The cost is $1,000, significantly less than the up to $3,500 some firms bid for the same job. Still, though the figure is nominal compared to the district’s more than $19 million annual budget, board President Ann Roseman questioned the validity of the project, saying she wasn’t sold on what exactly Haber had to offer.

Superintendent Laura Morana said the move is a necessary one, and one the district isn’t able to accomplish on its own.

The need to accurately determine school population is of great importance, especially recently. For the first time during her tenure, Morana said a middle school class, in this case the sixth grade, broached the 100-student mark. There’s also a waiting list for the district’s preschool program, which already has 250 three and four year olds enrolled.

In 2006, the district had around 750 students. The total number of students has nearly .

Board member Ben Forest agreed with the need for the study.

“There is no way, scientifically or not, that you can completely accurately predict population increase,” he said. “It’s very hard to predict this stuff, but I think it is a useful tool for our administration.”